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  1. #31
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    I wish they would hire an economist and put a few wind traders on their design team since we are the best group in WoW for this niche.

  2. #32
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    I remember @Aeg had considered looking for a job like that a while back. At any rate, it seems there was a recent blue post that hinted towards a coming release.

    But, I don't think the date should limit discussion on the other items.

    Inflation seems to be the likeliest big problem, and yet it presents a challenge - to make more gold in that environment. How do you guys feel about the idea of starting an expansion wiht your buying power cut in half?
    Some will; Some won't - So what? Let em die poor.

    +Rep doesn't buy me beer, but it sure gives me a reason to have one - if you learned something new or thought about something differently, let's celebrate!

    Late Nite With Stede - A WoW Goldmaking Blog / Podcast - LNWS.net
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  3. #33
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    #1 Launch Date
    August
    They have to beat Q4 otherwise the whole philosophy of "quicker but smaller" content patches, thats fits to faster xpac releases, is thrown in the gutter. Likewise, they put so much into Blizzcon, they can't release sensibly at that time. So, it will be released before Blizzcon.

    #2 Materials
    I think they will be available in larger supllies than we might think. Consider that in Wrath, a L70 could go farm in zones like Sholazar Basin even though the mobs were L76 or so. The farmer could not only survive, but kill the mobs. Timewarp to Cata, take a L80 to Twilight Highlands (L84) and he has problems staying alive, farming is difficult. I think the issues regarding stat inflation that are supposedly going to be addressed means that a L85 will be able to go farm all the new zones. So I think supply will be higher than in early weeks of Cata due to the potential for farming in all zones by current level capped toons, they wont need to level to farm.

    #3 Inscription
    I am thinking that glyphs are still going to be around, and that they will throw in some other stuff like they did with Cata level inscription. The imbalace of ink types required for glyphs may be addressed, but is likely going to be an 'out of time' item and stay as is. I recall they said that the current non-combat pets will be able to be named for their pet battle system - could be a nice scroll business there.

    #4 Professions
    More of the same. If anything, I half expect to see gating via tokens/cooldowns expanded onto several professions rather than just allowing recipes to be bought for gold or farmed materials. Think of the effect on supply / demand of crafted items if the tailor items made from recipes purchased by dreamcloth needed several dreamcloth not just one.

    #5 Inflation
    They don't need to pump more gold into the economy from dailies etc if they are not providing sinks to swallow it up. The LFD tool will likely be used to give sufficient rewards to allow running your weekly instances to cap your points, and provide enough gold for repairs and standard consumables. The Wrath Hog and Cata Vial are not gold sinks as they moved gold around, the Wrath Mammoth was a sink but where was the Cata version.? Let's watch and see if they give a nice expensive flying mount for goblins to spend their money on. I know, where was the mention of inflation.....well, apart from ensuring they dont mess up on the vendor prices again, there won't be any interest in it from Blizz side apart from head scratching as to how to get gold out of the system - which goes back to my fancy flying mount

    #6 Stockpiling
    Things that will be attractive to pandas and monks. Prepare for an explosion of activity from new toons as many people roll new toons - IF Blizz give us another character slot or two. If they stick to the 10 slots we currently have per server that is going to have a big impact on the 'fun' people can have. I have 10 @ 85 on my main server, I'm not deleting them. No slots = no panda / monk for me. Anyway, heirloom enchants will go like hot cakes the first few weeks (I wish essence of air stacked beyond 10), and the time consuming netherweave bags will be too hot to handle. Considering current items to stash away until they are in short supply, I tend to think that Cata mats will become a good bet. The ablilty to level quickly through Cata content (only 5 levels, not the 10 we had to go through from Wrath to get into Cata areas) into the MoP content is going to inevitably give less opportunity to harvest Cata mats whilst levelling in the future. So, hypnotic dust and savage leather seem easy long term investments, more so the dust which is often silly cheap currently.

    #7 New - Renewed Markets
    Ignoring the impact of the new profession materials, I can't decide if "Pet Battle System" will give a surge in the pet market, or if "Account Wide Pets" will kill it. Cooking profession bonus to pandas....so yes lets provide plenty of recipes, along with other profession items (idea for a new competition: How many copper rods can you sell in a week.?) Still early for me to think too hard on this, but I'll come back to it in time.

    TLDR: It's another expansion, the lessons we have learned from previous ones will stand us in good stead.

  4. #34
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    Apparently there's no 2012 Blizzcon, so we can take that into consideration when speculating a launch date.

  5. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by Life View Post
    I think the issues regarding stat inflation that are supposedly going to be addressed means that a L85 will be able to go farm all the new zones. So I think supply will be higher than in early weeks of Cata due to the potential for farming in all zones by current level capped toons, they wont need to level to farm.
    It's true - many level-capped players will probably level by farming (at least with their twinks). BUT - and don't forget that - they won't be able to FLY. That's a big MINUS for availability of materials.

    Quote Originally Posted by Life View Post
    The Wrath Hog and Cata Vial are not gold sinks as they moved gold around, the Wrath Mammoth was a sink but where was the Cata version.?
    Oh, the Hog and the Vial WERE gold sinks. You have to get half the materials from NPCs to build them. If you were lucky, you could get some hog parts from the Leviathan in Ulduar - but not for the Vial. Still 29k Gold (a little less with GPerk) - gone, forever. Used to build more NPC flats and houses ^^
    Milestones: 10.02.2011: 100k / 09.06.2011: 500k / 21.07.2011: 750k / 10.08.2011: Goldcap! / 28.03.2012: GBank at goldcap - 2 million fluid!
    ---------------------------
    That is not dead which can eternal lie.
    And with strange aeons even death may die

  6. #36
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    Edit:

    Quote Originally Posted by Life View Post
    #1 Launch Date
    August
    They have to beat Q4 otherwise the whole philosophy of "quicker but smaller" content patches, thats fits to faster xpac releases, is thrown in the gutter. Likewise, they put so much into Blizzcon, they can't release sensibly at that time. So, it will be released before Blizzcon.

    I agree with this, except Blizzcon is cancelled, so expect one release in that time frame.

    #2 Materials
    I think they will be available in larger supllies than we might think. Consider that in Wrath, a L70 could go farm in zones like Sholazar Basin even though the mobs were L76 or so. The farmer could not only survive, but kill the mobs. Timewarp to Cata, take a L80 to Twilight Highlands (L84) and he has problems staying alive, farming is difficult. I think the issues regarding stat inflation that are supposedly going to be addressed means that a L85 will be able to go farm all the new zones. So I think supply will be higher than in early weeks of Cata due to the potential for farming in all zones by current level capped toons, they wont need to level to farm.

    We don't know what they will do for stat inflation, but even if they squish item levels, it won't work this way. They will squish the item levels after an expansion comes out- not during it. So dont expect to be able to kill 89s at 85 easily, and no flying till 80. Supply will definitely be limited initially.

    #3 Inscription
    I am thinking that glyphs are still going to be around, and that they will throw in some other stuff like they did with Cata level inscription. The imbalace of ink types required for glyphs may be addressed, but is likely going to be an 'out of time' item and stay as is. I recall they said that the current non-combat pets will be able to be named for their pet battle system - could be a nice scroll business there.

    They have already stated they will change this, though we don't know in what way or how drastically. Good call on the rename scrolls.

    #4 Professions
    More of the same. If anything, I half expect to see gating via tokens/cooldowns expanded onto several professions rather than just allowing recipes to be bought for gold or farmed materials. Think of the effect on supply / demand of crafted items if the tailor items made from recipes purchased by dreamcloth needed several dreamcloth not just one.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see more JC like gating on other professions.

    #5 Inflation
    They don't need to pump more gold into the economy from dailies etc if they are not providing sinks to swallow it up. The LFD tool will likely be used to give sufficient rewards to allow running your weekly instances to cap your points, and provide enough gold for repairs and standard consumables. The Wrath Hog and Cata Vial are not gold sinks as they moved gold around, the Wrath Mammoth was a sink but where was the Cata version.? Let's watch and see if they give a nice expensive flying mount for goblins to spend their money on. I know, where was the mention of inflation.....well, apart from ensuring they dont mess up on the vendor prices again, there won't be any interest in it from Blizz side apart from head scratching as to how to get gold out of the system - which goes back to my fancy flying mount

    Inflation isn't always a bad thing from Blizzard's perspective, anything that reduces our buying power keeps us playing. Why do you think they increased quest rewards in Cata by so much, and why did they raise the gold cap? Also the chopper and vial are gold sinks, since a significant portion of the mats are vendor bought.

    #6 Stockpiling
    Things that will be attractive to pandas and monks. Prepare for an explosion of activity from new toons as many people roll new toons - IF Blizz give us another character slot or two. If they stick to the 10 slots we currently have per server that is going to have a big impact on the 'fun' people can have. I have 10 @ 85 on my main server, I'm not deleting them. No slots = no panda / monk for me. Anyway, heirloom enchants will go like hot cakes the first few weeks (I wish essence of air stacked beyond 10), and the time consuming netherweave bags will be too hot to handle. Considering current items to stash away until they are in short supply, I tend to think that Cata mats will become a good bet. The ablilty to level quickly through Cata content (only 5 levels, not the 10 we had to go through from Wrath to get into Cata areas) into the MoP content is going to inevitably give less opportunity to harvest Cata mats whilst levelling in the future. So, hypnotic dust and savage leather seem easy long term investments, more so the dust which is often silly cheap currently.

    Yes.

    #7 New - Renewed Markets
    Ignoring the impact of the new profession materials, I can't decide if "Pet Battle System" will give a surge in the pet market, or if "Account Wide Pets" will kill it. Cooking profession bonus to pandas....so yes lets provide plenty of recipes, along with other profession items (idea for a new competition: How many copper rods can you sell in a week.?) Still early for me to think too hard on this, but I'll come back to it in time.

    You will absolutely see a spike in pet demand. Most current collectors only collect on one toon anyway, but you are about to see the amount of collectors spike dramatically. Also some pets will be in much higher demand than others. One other thing is some expensive pets might be more likely to be bought if you can use it on all of your characters instead of just one.

    TLDR: It's another expansion, the lessons we have learned from previous ones will stand us in good stead.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by KaliopeLlane View Post
    Two - they would have to launch a Beta in the next 30 days or so in order to have time to get an expansion out the door before Blizzcon becomes a factor. I read somewhere that it takes them 2 months and saps around 50% of their staff to put on a Blizzcon, it's doubtful that they would push a major release close to that. So you can likely rule out large sections of Q3 as "Blizzcon" time.
    In light of today's announcement that there will be no Blizzcon 2012, this appears to confirm my theory that Blizzcon is a huge distraction from dev time

    Given that Diablo 3 is already in Beta, I would guess that MoP will take the late summer/fall slot that Blizzcon was hogging up. I'm sad tho cuz I was going to try to go this year...

  8. #38
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    Press events invariably occur just before the start of beta testing, so the mid-March press tour suggests April beta start, release absolutely no earlier than September. Also it may suggest that Blizzard are skipping non-internal alpha test completely, since "a press tour in 6 weeks" is apparently the most interesting thing Blizzard's PR are able to announce today - for any other game, the date wouldn't interest anyone except the journalists themselves until the tour was over. As an aside, based on rough Tyrael's Charger stats, I reckon about 10% of the active player-base will be expecting beta invites, which would be at least 100,000 customers. I doubt they will all be invited at once, since testing normally only uses 4 or 5 servers worldwide.

  9. #39
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    Also

    I am considering making a lvl85 with Herb/Mining (i am a non-gathering goblin)
    Back in Cata launch, the stacks were worth 250g/stck. The first weeks in MoP will be highly profitable for those two professions.

  10. #40
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    So, I just watched Legendary and they made a compelling argument (based on a blue post by Zarhym) for Blizzard putting away with the concept of distinct servers for MoP. If I recall correctly, blue post stated they want to make a bold and spectacular change to deal with faction-imbalance and low-pop servers. They also said that they didn't have the time/ressources to do the programming in the past, so it seems like it is quite a big change. Disclaimer: I'm quoting from memory here!

    Obviously, this would have quite an impact on AH PvP, potentially increasing the market size by one or two magnitudes, remove the ability of one person to control any market (100k stacks of common mats like ores and herbs might be a common sight).

    Do you think this change might really be coming and what kind of consequences would you expect if it happens?
    Last edited by Bibär; February 3rd, 2012 at 01:39 PM. Reason: added link to blue post

 

 
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