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  1. #1
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    Herb nerf confirmed... effect on Darkmoon trinkets?

    So a blue post has confirmed a 50% herb spawn nerf in patch 5.1. (See http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/to...590?page=9#173)

    Folks in the thread have reported that they see it much more than 50%. (I haven't tried any gathering myself yet, so can't really say.)

    So, any comments on how this will impact darkmoon trinket sales? There are a bunch on the Allied AH for under 30k, thinking about grabbing them. (I typically play Horde, we're a medium-pop realm with a 3:1 alliance to horde balance.) Nerfed herb rates will make it more difficult to get inks. Also, with 5.1 (at least on my realm) the farmer bots seem to have disappeared. Fortunately I bought a ton of herbs before the patch

    Thx, U

  2. #2
    US-Stormrage(A)
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    I'm not sure trinkets will spike that much, but and will potentially rise in price some.

    If it were me, I wouldn't go on a trinket buying spree. I wouldn't be surprised if prices still decrease some on trinkets.


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  3. #3
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    I predict Tiger Deck to go up in value, Ox deck to drop a lot in value. The reality is, the Tiger Deck doing agil/str affects a huge amount of the DPS out there and it is BiS atm, especially considering it can be upgraded to 484 ilvl.

    The intel dps/healing trinkets...depends on your server. I have one of each to sell this upcoming DMF, but the tigers are where my profits are really going to come from!

  4. #4
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    My guess is that it will slow the steep decline in DMF prices but probably not enough to cause them to go up.
    I also think it will effect SI much more than IoD.
    With 80g/stack herbs, IoD was worth about 8g and SI about 80g. I.e., if SI got more than 1000% of IoD an arbitrager would fix it.
    With 30g/stack herbs, IoD was worth 6.25g, it's just that SI was worth a lot closer to the price of one IoD than 10.
    If the prices go back up, I am not sure if I see IoD rising that much. How would you allocate 50g/stack herbs - 6.25 IoD puts SI at 38, 7g IoD puts SI 30, ... ? I can't see the demand getting to where you would want to use the ink trader.

    N.B.: random aside - the increased volatility of SI means the Fool's cap to Greet tea ratio fluctuates a lot. Pre ink trader, FC was nearly twice as valuable as GT. When herbs hit 30g, it was a lot closer to 27%.

  5. #5
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    Totally depends on realm. On my realm herbs were 30g a stack but Starlight Ink was 100g, rarely it would drop down lower but never was it low enough to make it worthwhile to actually buy it.

    I think the increase in herb prices won't cause trinkets to go up but it may cause them not to crater as much. Since the last fair prices have been fairly steady with the tank trinket around 12k and the agility the highest around 33k. Since the patch, the agility and strength trinkets have actually gone down (the agi by about 10% and the strength by 30%) while others have held steady.

    With herbs at 30g a stack I've been making cards for the upcoming fair and had my trinket cost down to about 2500g so I didn't really care that much if trinket prices went down since they could go down quite a bit and still be profitable. I'm fortunate that I've been buying up a lot of herbs so had enough starlight ink to make cards through this weekend and probably to Tuesday or so if I mill everything AND use the ink trader (I have 13 scribes so it isn't practical or economical for me not to use the ink trader).

    I did take my herbalist and picked fool's cap last night to get my own since of the spawn rate nerf. I think it is about 50% cut. There were still a fair amount of herbs to be had although not as much as before. In my AH, green tea is about 3g apiece so that isn't terribly appealing to buy. With the number of scribes I have I use almost all my cards in decks (about 6% get sold individually) so I can afford to have herb prices go up some and still make a profit on trinkets. I think a lot of people with only 1 scribe will find it harder to be profitable with herb prices going up. All of which is good for me as it could drive them out of the market.

  6. #6
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    I predict an across the board drop in price. The price is moreso about demand than anything else.


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  7. #7
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    Half way through this fair the prices for the trinkets has gone down except for the tank trinket which has held around the 12k range. Caster trinket is around 13k (had been in the low 20s). All the other trinkets let around 16k at this point, but things seems stable at this point. Even so the cost to make the decks is so low that this is still quite profitable, even with the herb prices going up (they are starting to come down a bit from where they were last week).

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zerohour View Post
    I predict an across the board drop in price. The price is moreso about demand than anything else.
    This more than anything.

    I've made and sold over 100 decks this past month. I went from being able to get 12k for a serpent deck to needing to sell trinkets for 8-9k which is a 25% decrease in price.

    Tiger decks went from 18k to 13k which is nearly a 1/6 price drop.

    Crane decks went from 18k to 11-13k which again is nearly a 1/6 price drop

    I never really sold tank decks for anything over 3k because I simply wanted to get rid of them to either buy cards to finish more important and easier to sell decks or to trade them for cards i needed.

    From last faire i've pulled in over 800,000 PROFIT (initial nest egg of 20k, up to 840ish)

    I play on Tich which has demand on both factions which helps (i haven't done much arbitrage).

    As far as price of herbs effecting price of decks... nope. Botters had herbs down to 20g on the AH and bulk I was getting them for 14-15 and was making higher profits on decks 3 weeks ago than trinkets/decks within the past week and a half. Demand hasn't really gone down all that much though, through trade I can normally sell 10 of each trinket in about 3 hours of spamming.

  9. #9
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    Post above me is example of how things are different on different realms. For example, except early in Fair 1 when hardly anyone had trinkets, trade barking has been a total waste of time. I hate having to pay the 5% auction fee but I sell trinkets that way and don't sell them very much trade barking.

    I made a profit of about 800k on first fair, 600k on fair 2 and about 100k so far on fair 3. However, typically I sell very little the week of the fair and do better during the 3 weeks the fair isn't in ton and I have less competition in selling trinkets.

    A few observations about the current fair:

    1. Trading for cards is way down. In every other fair there have been tons of people trading cards. This fair, almost none. I don't know if it is fewer people making decks or just that people with 1 scribe after 2 1/2 months of making scrolls don't need to trade as much. In Fair 2 I put together an extra 10 decks or so just from trading. This fair I've only traded one or two cards.

    2. Ox cards are selling well as single cards. Not as profitable as trinkets (I'm netting about 11k for an Ox trinket) but still quite profitable. By chance the two cards I've ended up with lots of multiples of are Ox cards and I was worried they wouldn't sell, but they have been steadily selling.

    3. I am selling way more trinkets during this fair than the last fair. I've sold about double the trinkets so far during this far than I sold during the entire last fair. I've actually stopped trying to sell my tank trinkets as I only have 2 left and I want to hold them for after the fair. With trinket prices falling the demand is up. There are way more people willling to pay 12k to 15k for a trinket than would pay 25k to 30k.

    4. Lack of herbs is just know becoming a problem. I had enough cheap herbs that I was able to make cards with them right up until the start of the fair. Until today I've been able to buy herbs fairly reasonable (2 to 2.5g a piece) but now they are over 3g which double what I was paying for my earlier cards. However, the cheapest trinket still sells for a net of 11k so even so the trinkets are profitable. I estimate that my profit for this fair (including the 3 weeks after the fair) will end up being 350k to 400k.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Koshka View Post
    Post above me is example of how things are different on different realms. For example, except early in Fair 1 when hardly anyone had trinkets, trade barking has been a total waste of time. I hate having to pay the 5% auction fee but I sell trinkets that way and don't sell them very much trade barking.

    I made a profit of about 800k on first fair, 600k on fair 2 and about 100k so far on fair 3. However, typically I sell very little the week of the fair and do better during the 3 weeks the fair isn't in ton and I have less competition in selling trinkets.

    A few observations about the current fair:

    1. Trading for cards is way down. In every other fair there have been tons of people trading cards. This fair, almost none. I don't know if it is fewer people making decks or just that people with 1 scribe after 2 1/2 months of making scrolls don't need to trade as much. In Fair 2 I put together an extra 10 decks or so just from trading. This fair I've only traded one or two cards.

    2. Ox cards are selling well as single cards. Not as profitable as trinkets (I'm netting about 11k for an Ox trinket) but still quite profitable. By chance the two cards I've ended up with lots of multiples of are Ox cards and I was worried they wouldn't sell, but they have been steadily selling.

    3. I am selling way more trinkets during this fair than the last fair. I've sold about double the trinkets so far during this far than I sold during the entire last fair. I've actually stopped trying to sell my tank trinkets as I only have 2 left and I want to hold them for after the fair. With trinket prices falling the demand is up. There are way more people willling to pay 12k to 15k for a trinket than would pay 25k to 30k.

    4. Lack of herbs is just know becoming a problem. I had enough cheap herbs that I was able to make cards with them right up until the start of the fair. Until today I've been able to buy herbs fairly reasonable (2 to 2.5g a piece) but now they are over 3g which double what I was paying for my earlier cards. However, the cheapest trinket still sells for a net of 11k so even so the trinkets are profitable. I estimate that my profit for this fair (including the 3 weeks after the fair) will end up being 350k to 400k.
    It is a huge difference in server;
    Tich trinkets i can get about 9-13k per and 3k for ox and illidan horde is VERY similar.
    My friend's server Gilneas they are 18-25k per

    High population servers have cheaper material prices (like you said you normally paid 40g per stack where I paid 14-20) as well as more people making trinkets and more demand. But because there are so many being put in the market you have to be competitive with pricing unlike many low to mid population servers.

    If I were to save all my cards for 3 weeks and x-fer them to a server where they sold for 2-2.5x the profit... i could easily make almost 3 million gold in that time period (which i might try), but those servers there is no way i can move 160ish decks in 3 weeks because of the population and the demand.

 

 
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