• When And What to Sell After 4.2

    We've all been reading a lot about the stockpiles for 4.2, both size and content. I would like to start a discussion about when and how to start profitting from our respective stockpiles come 4.2.

    There are 2 primary considerations when making the decision:
    * When is the best time to sell a particular product?
    * Is it better to sell mats or a crafted product?

    We tell each other time and time again; the price depends on the supply and the demand. We expect the demand for our stockpiled goods to increase beyond the regular supply from all sources, so we have built up a stockpile to feed the demand. The problem is that given all the stockpiled goods, as 4.2 comes online the supply (stockpiled goods) is a lot greater than the demand. If we open the flood gates to our guild banks the prices will crash as we increase the supply way beyond the demand, so we need to know when to sell and keep the stockpile intact and wait for increase in price.

    I would like to look at a list of some commonly stockpiled items and provide my input on when it would be most appropriate to start selling.

    , , and
    , , and

    There are a few important milestones in the coming month after 4.2

    Day 0:
    Patch is deployed. Stockpiled Justice Points can purchase ilvl 359 items. New PvP gear is available for crafting. Raids are starting in Firelands.

    High demand items:
    , , and
    All the new ilvl 359 epics in the hands of casuals will need enchants. A lot of people will be buying premium enchants for the new shiny epics, though no weapon enchants.

    (and other gems):
    Similar to above. The new ilvl 359 gears is full of sockets to expect a lot of gems to sell. Almost everyone prefers in almost all sockets, so expect a lot of these to sell, especially in the prime cuts: Bold, Agile and Brilliant.

    and / and /
    The new PvP gear will require a lot of these mats so expect a big increased demand. I don't think the vendor price reduction for green gems will have any impact at all, as it was already more profitable to shuffle to enchanting mats and it will be even more so after 4.2.

    These items are also used in great quantity for the PvP gear, so expect the price to rise. Also note that and are not used, so these will probably not increase as much. It may be profitable to transmute instead of the usual (if you are not transmuting ).

    I don't think raiding will have a big impact on prices from day one as only a few bosses will be downed.

    Day 7-Day 30:
    PvP epics and raiding epics will start to become available. So I expect this to demand to replace the initial rush from converted Valor Points.

    High demand items:
    , , and
    (and other gems)
    The mats for crafted PvP gear will decrease as anyone looking to enter at the start of a new will already have the gear they need.

    Day 30+:
    Finally the vendors are available and this will create the next tier of high demand items.

    High demand items:
    These are needed for the weapons, so I expect the demand to increase a lot at this point. I don't see the demand being very high before the vendors become available though.

    , , and
    The new gear requires premium enchants and there are also a lot of weapons, so the big juicy weapon enchants should command a premium. I think the price of especially will spike immediately after the patch and then slowly decrease over the month leading up to the vendors being available. When they become available I expect the demand to exceed the supply again.

    , and
    Used a lot for the crafted items especially , though this may be compensated by the fact that FIRElands will drop a lot of . is primarily for and

    That was a lot of text about the when part of selling, but nothing about the what i.e. mats or the finished product. Generally, the finished product should sell higher than the individual mats, but in order to unload a big stockpile I think most goblins will need to diversify into both mats and products to capitalise on the general expected increase in price.

    Going through this list has revealed to myself how utterly unprepared I am, especially regarding enchanting. This is primarily the 4000 JP stockpile I expect a lot of people to have, which will translate into ~2 pieces of gear with at least some sockets.

    I know that I have not covered every possible product to be stockpiled, but there are some I have decided not to grab as I know too little about the market or don't have the necessary professions (tailoring/engineering). So if anyone have some good ideas to add or some corrections, then please post it so we can discuss how best to capitalise on 4.2.

    Lastly, I have not talked about what ROI can be expected, as I guess that will depend on the server, but I think anything less than 100% mark is worth waiting for better days, though maybe I am just being greedy.
    This article was originally published in forum thread: When And What to Sell After 4.2 started by Nilaus View original post
    Comments 24 Comments
    1. Aeg's Avatar
      Aeg -
      Quote Originally Posted by Nilaus View Post
      On the other hand it may even be worth prospecting just for the alone
      I have been doing this for a while now, got 3k stockpiled at cheaper then market rates just from prospecting pyrite. And the new leg armor patch should be purchasable from the LW vendor for 10 , so I would expect a small run on piles of 10 on the ah.
    1. pahr's Avatar
      pahr -
      very nice writeup!I can't wait to see how it all shakes out tomorrow and the coming weeks.
    1. Sinshroud's Avatar
      Sinshroud -
      BTW keep in mind for patch day deployment:

      , and are all needed to craft the JC Rings/necklaces.
    1. calianna's Avatar
      calianna -
      Pets will also see an uptick in sales on Day 0.
    1. Hagu's Avatar
      Hagu -
      Thank you for the nice post.

      I would add a couple of lessor points.

      Day 36 and 41 - more patterns being available. I.e., people who don't grind more than one alt (or got lucky e.g. engineer/blacksmith) will choose their primary access on day 31-ish but then have their secondary on day 36-ish.

      There may be an initial slight dip in pyrite prices as some misinformed minority do the "wut no epic gems" and decide to dump.

      I see enchanting mat demand as being high the first week and quickly dropping. 50s jasper can generate a lot of mats.

      For the non-truegold metals, i would err on the side of selling too soon. There is clearly a long-term decline in these prices due to gem changes.

      For the rest, the question seems to be do you sell day 1-5 or day 31-35.
    1. Mitrian's Avatar
      Mitrian -
      Quote Originally Posted by Hagu View Post
      For the rest, the question seems to be do you sell day 1-5 or day 31-35.

      Personally, I will post the full spectrum on day 1, but at very high prices, and let it sit. If the demand is really that high, then my items will sell, and I go home happy (as I repost some more). If other goblins constantly undercut all evening and my items don't sell, then I wait until the weekend, when at least some of the competition will be running out of their stockpile.

      In short, I will not competitively undercut on day 1. I will take my profits, but I'll be patient.

      Also, I built my stockpile fully intending on having enough supply to sell both materials (with a very high threshold), as well as finished goods. And I'll be posting both with the same philosophy, except for a couple types that I just couldn't get enough of (leather and cloth) at reasonable prices.

      Too bad I can't get off work early today!
    1. Valdron's Avatar
      Valdron -
      Quote Originally Posted by calianna View Post
      Pets will also see an uptick in sales on Day 0.
      I sold a whopping 3 pets today, 2 of which were lanterns from the opposite faction.
    1. calianna's Avatar
      calianna -
      Ahh... but how many did you sell the day before patch?
    1. Nilaus's Avatar
      Nilaus -
      I never mentioned pets in my post, primarily because I don't understand the market, but also because it seems like a niche market.

      Now that the patch is here, it looks (initially) like Gems and Enchants are going through the roof on a lot of servers, while PvP gear and remains quiet for now.

      Lot of speculation about elementium ore. Some say decrease due to vendor price, while other say increase due to enchanting and gems. For now the price is increasing, but time will tell when the initial rush has calmed down on whether or not it will stabilise higher or lower than in 4.1. So far I am burning through my stockpile, though I did manage to grab an extra 150 stacks at a reasonable price this afternoon from a farmer who clearly hadn't checked AH prices yet.
    1. personette's Avatar
      personette -
      Quote Originally Posted by Valdron View Post
      I sold a whopping 3 pets today, 2 of which were lanterns from the opposite faction.
      I've been selling a lot of pets...probably 4 or so of each engi pet, though the lantern I have up hasn't moved, and I've been able to mark up my prices a bit (usually I sell the pet bombling for 125g, but I've notched it up to 150, for example).
    1. Marxman's Avatar
      Marxman -
      I've actually been very surprised at how slowly my PvP gear is selling. I've sold maybe 15 pieces of the 150 or so that I crafted. Perhaps sales will pick up when the new arena season starts next week?

      Enchants and Inferno Rubies, on the other hand, have EXPLODED. Way way beyond my predictions. I ran out of Inferno Rubies on the first night, and I had over 10 stacks saved up. Delicates and Brilliants were selling faster than I could cut them.
    1. Drrwho's Avatar
      Drrwho -
      Yea Marxman, I've noticed you and I have had PvP gear up mostly, but so few sales. Very surprised at the lack of sales there, to be honest, considering how big Stormrage is.

      And yea, enchant scrolls have been selling like hotcakes.
    1. Marxman's Avatar
      Marxman -
      I had better luck today/tonight with PvP sales, but it's still pretty slow going. I've noticed a lot more competition today, especially on the Plate pieces.
    1. Drrwho's Avatar
      Drrwho -
      I honestly haven't even tried the Plate pieces yet. Those seem to sell at much smaller margins. Unless I just had some seriously bad timing with trying to sell some. But I've been more focused on leather & mail gear. I did manage to sell a couple pieces today though. I've sold some PvP necks & rings as well.

      Will be interesting to see if things start to slowly pick up. It could be that most people are so focused on the new dailies and Firelands raiding that they aren't bothering much with PvP gear yet. I would hazard a bet that as that all quiets down a bit and the initial thrill wears off, we may see PvP gear sales pick up again.

      Here's hoping!!
    1. Drrwho's Avatar
      Drrwho -
      Marxman, out of curiosity, did you get the idea of selling and from this forum? Don't worry, I'm not mad that you are competing with me on selling those There are enough sales to go around for the both of us, that's for sure. One benefit of being on such a high pop server. I was just curious.

      I just try to keep that other main seller, Cerridwenl (sp?), from selling any
    1. Marxman's Avatar
      Marxman -
      I actually have been selling them off and on since I got the patterns in Wrath. I basically craft them whenever I can find Borean Leather cheap, which isn't all too often. They used to sell extremely well considering how cheaply they can be made, but sales have slowed down considerably recently so I haven't really bothered crafting many.

      As for the PvP gear, I think it will begin selling much more quickly when the new season starts next Tuesday. Right now it's a combination of no PvP season and the new dailies causing a dip in PvP activity.
    1. Drrwho's Avatar
      Drrwho -
      That might be my fault, sorry I have the RAH, and check regularly... as soon as I sell one of either bag, I post another.

      I have Borean Leather on my TUJ list, so anytime I see it at 1g or less per, I buy it all up. I typically can't keep enough in stock though, mainly since it's usually only a few stacks at a time that are up for 1g or less per leather. So yea, like you said, I get it when I can, but I have run out at times and just had to wait for more to pop up at a reasonable price.
    1. Mansch's Avatar
      Mansch -
      I noticed something I did not expect the prices increased dramatically form initially a 200G/gem at the start of 4.2 to 100G now (due to undercutting). Which is surprising as the price range was 20-30 before 4.2. Does anybody noticed this on their server and/or knows why this is?
    1. hayam's Avatar
      hayam -
      Ember topazes sell very well on my server at a lovely price of 60-80 gold per depending on cut. It is much higher than pre-patch, I suppose because everyone was smart enough to stockpile rubies which have pretty much crashed by now, but few remembered that gear sometimes has blue and yellow sockets as well, and the prime gems for those are demonseyes and ember topazes respectively.
    1. Juok's Avatar
      Juok -
      Yeah idd, those red gems are 50-120 g atm on my server. The rest selling in a 30-200 range. But only the less wanted gems sell high, the inscribed and normal dps gems are undercutted to <50.