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  1. #1
    Mornia's Avatar
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    Will the big crash happen?

    Over the last few months, I've read many times that just before an expansion is released, prices crash as everyone panic sells their commodities. In the past, this happened because there were very few people who were playing the AH as a business and speculative strategies were practised by only a few in the know. Those that were not in the know freaked out and sold their stuff because they didn't know any better.

    I wonder whether things have changed now. I'm yet to see prices crash and many prices have remained stable or even increased. I believe this is because players are more gold savvy than they used to be and playing the AH has become a fairly common practice - if there are goods being sold at silly prices, they are snapped up quickly. There are a lot more rich folks around these days and speculation is a recognised strategy by many.

    Will the big crash happen? Will we get the chance to buy huge amounts of materials at well below the usual market price? Anecdotally, we can all quote instances of amazing deals, but that was true even before cataclysm was announced. I've been looking for such opportunities for years and they've always been there.

    I hypothesise that we will not see the crash that so many are predicting and that although there will be fluctuation within many markets, it won't be that much more than is usual. Any blips will quickly be eaten up by speculators like myself and prices will remain within sensible limits. You'll need to be in the right place at the right time to acquire large amounts of materials as they won't last long on the AH before they are gobbled up by the legion of tux wearing entrepreneurs.

    This is just a theory and may yet be proved wrong. I hope so as I'd love to add lots of very cheap goods to my ever expanding stockpile.

    What do you think?

  2. #2
    Zoxy's Avatar
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    Its a interesting one :

    On my server 2 things are happening there are a bunch of people off loading tons of items and then there this is my competition selling items way above market to push the prices back up , i have been doing really well for good deal during 11pm -2am

    But i am not seeing a major crash just dumping of stock

    Zoxy
    http://tradingwithzoxy.com/ Offering the Latest Gold making Tips and Addon Guides

    Check out My Addon Guides - Trade Skill Master Complete Guide - MySales

  3. #3
    Mornia's Avatar
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    So are you seeing a crash Zoxy? How does your competitors selling items way above market price push prices back up? For example, If I tried to sell Adamantite Ore at three times the going rate, prices wouldn't rise - my auctions just wouldn't sell. Surely if they are selling way above market price they are not making profits.

    You are seeing dumping of stock, but not enough to constitute a crash? So the dumping is sporadic and not a general trend? Please elaborate!

  4. #4
    Zoxy's Avatar
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    I think more a rebalancing and a bit of dumping .

    Ore for example is going through a price correction due to the reseeding of different ore types - Mithril is a good example . ( i blogged about this yesterday id you want to read further )

    Abyss Crystals - are going for under 10g and i am seeing people dumping these in large quantiles ( great to do abysall shattering on to flip for profit if you are a enchanter )


    Cut gem prices have dropped about 10-20% from a average of 100gold to 80-90g depending on type

    Cloth wool , linen and silk - i am seeing a massive decrease on these ( most likely due to all the new race and class combos . )

    264 gear - I am seeing massive drops in prices and talkign to traders they are now finding it hard top sell but i see lots of people wanting it made in trade caht ( so i presume people using up mats and jp points )

    Herbs they have started to drop on my server Adders tongue was 25g a stack and now down to 15-20g .


    So i think that the market has generally shifted down but what i am seeing is my competitors buying up large volumes of these and then relisting hoping to cash in on desperate people trying to stock up for cata . So i am using the simple rule of buy low sell normal.So my advice is if you spot somone dumping stock use auctioneers general search and search by seller so u can quickly snap up all of there posts

    Zoxy
    http://tradingwithzoxy.com/ Offering the Latest Gold making Tips and Addon Guides

    Check out My Addon Guides - Trade Skill Master Complete Guide - MySales

  5. #5
    One more thing that will contribute to a flood and minor crash is that many players will be deleting alts below lvl 30 and you will see a flood of low level mats because of this. They are doing this so that they can re-roll alts in new areas or new races.

  6. #6
    Alja's Avatar
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    The only things that I have noticed go down in price are items such as runecloth, linen, and wool - I'm not sure what the reason is behind the linen & wool (unless it's just that people have been stockpiling it) but I can understand the runecloth - I tried to get rid of the majority of my stock prior to people realizing that the cloth turn-ins were going away.

    I have noticed that glyph sales still are quite strong along with ore still performing pretty well on my server (especially outland ore). With the engineering changes I've been able to dump a lot of my eternal waters into Volatile Blasting Triggers and those have been selling like hotcakes.

    That being said prices tend to fluctuate so wildly on my server that sometimes it's hard to tell if something is overpriced or underpriced :/

  7. #7
    I've noticed that same as above ^ so I've been snatching low price wool in preperation for winter's veil. I'm worried that if 4.0.3a was a sign of whats to come with cataclysm then I shouldn't stockpile wool because the AH will be flooded with it from new low level characters.

  8. #8
    My server is currently experiencing a huge fluctuation in prices across the boards as side effects of a multitude of changes.

    The prospect of Alchemy becoming a hugely beneficial profession in Cataclysm has inevitably bumped the prices for all pre-WotLK herbs by the very least 50%.

    The Runecloth market is reacting to the new City-Tabards combined with the huge pre-Cata stockpiling people were undertaking to aid in rep grinding with the new races.

    The mining market (Mithril and Thorium more specifically) is seeing huge crashes in prices, we’re talking a 75% drop on Mithril.

    Accompanying the huge drop in Thorium prices is the now very cheap Arcane Crystal – a change almost completely nullified by myself due to my huge demand.

    All of the WotLK enchanting materials have crashed completely, offering very beneficial, albeit long term, profits.

    Netherweave Bag prices are crashing as a result of a multitude of less intelligent people unloading the reserves now as opposed to the days adjacent to the Cataclysm release. Interestingly enough, Netherweave Cloth prices are also dropping (60% or so over two days).

    Due to my relatively small server population, most other aspects of the market that I dabble in are remaining fairly stable, with certain dips immediately being taken advantage of by myself.

    So in short, I agree that the ‘crash’ will be, to some extent, nullified by those intent on profiting from it, but some crashes cannot be controlled by just one person. This in turn leads to a certain imbalance between servers, where the amount of Auction House prospectors will be the determining factor. God save us all.

  9. #9
    Xalted's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mornia View Post
    You'll need to be in the right place at the right time to acquire large amounts of materials as they won't last long on the AH before they are gobbled up by the legion of tux wearing entrepreneurs.
    Bingo, I totally agree with this. We're probably going to see little blips here and there and an overall bend in the curve of prices, but I don't predict a massive crash this expansion.
    "We make a living by what we get, we make a life by what we give." - Sir Winston Churchill

  10. #10
    Praxel's Avatar
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    My server experienced the big crash a week or two before 4.0.1. Gem prices dropped from ~120g to around half that. I stuffed a bank tab each with Adder's Tongue at 6g a stack, Thorium at 6g, Saronite at 8g, and Icethorn/Lichbloom at 9g a stack, though those prices have mostly risen back to the ~15g levels. Primordial Saronite fell to 120g where it's stabilized. Enchanting mats hit the floor, and it's more profitable to Greed and vendor dungeon blues than it is to disenchant them into shards now. We had what I can only describe as a massive server-wide panic, as people unloaded ALL of their commodity materials. There was no differentiation between mats that would become worthless in Cata and materials that would hold their demand. The whole thing became an exercise in predicting what would retain value and what would continue to decline.

    I'm not banking on another "crash" before cataclysm. I do think prices will stabilize. Northrend herbs and ore will slowly inflate, as demand from tradeskill leveling outpaces the supply of farmers still in Northrend. Materials which are used only to create level 80 items (eternals, crusader orbs) will deflate. The current value of TBC items supports this theory; TBC herbs and ores are excitingly expensive (moved 4 stacks of Netherbloom this weekend @80g a stack) compared to their Northrend counterparts, while Primal Nethers and Void Crystals are almost valueless.

    Grab the inflaters when farmers panic, ditch your deflaters as soon as possible.

 

 

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