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  1. #1
    Sterling's Avatar
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    Cataclysm Speculation

    Cataclysm Speculation
    1. Stockpiling

    Hello everyone.

    The cataclysm speculation thread in the Stormspire has yielded some pretty interesting discussions, and I think this forum needs a similar thread. I'm curious to see how others are preparing for cataclysm. Some pertinent questions to get us started:

    • What items have you stockpiled, and in what volume?
    • Why have you stockpiled these items?
    • What is your estimated ROI for this investment?
    • Have you avoided stockpiling an item that others seem to recommend? If so, why?


    I'll kick this off by answering my own questions:

    • What items have you stockpiled, and in what volume?
      1. A full tab of materials for engineering pets. This is to protect myself from inflation.
      2. Legendary craft materials: x 9, x 3, x 3,
      3. The much-debated and . 5 and 2 respectively.
      4. An obscene amount of and . 9115 and 3200 respectively.
      5. A full tab of "coveted" twink items, or items to be buffed in Cataclysm.
      6. 4300 Glyphs. Mostly learned from and discoveries.

    • Why have you stockpiled these items?
      1. Engineering pets have always been great sellers, and will continue to be. Prices will inflate across the board for these pets once Cataclysm hits. Stockpiling the materials for these is a no-brainer. I expect an increase in demand due to all the green/hairy people running around.
      2. Players will strive to complete the Legendary achievement for their guild. I believe many players are currently cleaning out their banks and dumping these items. Pick them up now and sell them later, at inflated prices.
      3. This one is up in the air. We've been over this 100 times, let's not make it 101.
      4. The farming potential for vanilla ores will increase significantly. First, low-level players will be mining at a pace we haven't seen since 2006. Second, high-level players may now farm vanilla ores using flying mounts. The farming potential for BC and WotLK, however, remains nearly untouched. Unloading Saronite, however, is very precarious. Did you know that a stack of Saronite Bars costs 15g to auction? True story.
      5. The "elite" players will seek to gain an edge in leveling their goblin/worgen. I will provide this edge at the AH, but at a price. Several items are being buffed in Cataclysm, others nerfed. More details on this in the days ahead.
      6. The baseline value of glyph is going through the roof in Cataclysm. Many players will be leveling inscription, so stay away from vendor-taught recipes. Full write up here.

    • What is your estimated ROI for this investment?
      1. Not applicable.
      2. 200-350% or +10,000g.
      3. -9,000g to + 80,000g
      4. Raw cost: 13,500g. Expected ROI 200-250% or ~15,000g.
      5. According to my addons, I have spent 4500g on low-leveling items. Expected ROI 300% or 9000g.
      6. Raw cost: 12,900g. Expected ROI: 500% or ~52,000g.


      For a best-case grand total of ~150,000g. Not too shabby. I've been holding back, as a player has promised to sell me items. My server has not graced me with the opportunity to purchase any just yet. Let's hope I can strike a good deal here. I'm ready to spend all of my gold if the price is right. Anaalius was lucky enough to purchase an entire bag for 200k. This could possibly represent the single most profitable flip in the history of this game. If you're reading this Anaalius, please please please, don't sell those items just yet. They'll be worth over a million gold in 1-2 years.

    • Have you avoided stockpiling an item that others seem to recommend? If so, why?

      In particular, no low-level ores. I don't think these will be worth the time, although they should at least hold their current value.


    2. Guild Perks - A Worthwhile Opportunity?

    Cataclysm is introducing guild achievements and leveling. This would be of little interest to me, however blizzard is implementing changes that piqued my attention. As guilds level up, they gain certain perks. Some of these bring earning potential to the table. Notable perks:

    Level Earned / Perk.
    • 2. Mount Up: Increases speed while mounted by 5%.
    • 4. Cash Flow: Each time you loot money from an enemy, an extra 5% money is generated and deposited directly into your guild bank.
    • 10. Mobile Banking: Summons your guild bank. Instant, 1 hr cooldown
    • 13. Working Overtime: Increases the chance to gain a skill increase on tradeskills by 10%.
    • 15. Cash Flow (Rank 2): Each time you loot money from an enemy, an extra 10% money is generated and deposited directly into your guild bank.
    • 22. Bountiful Bags: Increases the quantity of materials gained from Mining, Skinning, Herbalism, and Disenchanting by 15%.
    • 23. Bartering: Reduces the price of items from all vendors by 5%.


    Perks 4, 15 and 22 are looking very attractive. I have been toying with the idea of creating my own leveling guild. This would require some serious upkeep, as the guild would need to offer several incentives for players to stick around. Would the gold received from a zerg leveling guild (the 10%) make this worthwhile? Time will tell. I may simply end up joining a guild where these perks are already unlocked.

    3. Early Cataclysm Strategy

    There will be an unprecedented number of low-level characters running around in the first few weeks of Cataclysm. This means:

    1. Huge demand for profession materials.
    2. Huge demand for quality leveling items.
    3. Huge demand for crafted quest items.
    4. Huge supply of raw materials.
    5. Unusual number of "rare" low-level items at the AH. Potential for deals here.


    How will you prepare for this?

    Whether the supply of raw materials will outstrip demand, I don't know. But know this: gatherers will go out of their way to pick herbs and mine nodes, as these now award experience. If the price is right, high level characters may also go retro and farm old-world materials. 310% Thorium farming in the charred vale? I think so.

    All redundancy aside, I hope to sell mid-range epics and blues for astronomical prices. Be ready to snatch up good deals on the auction house. Items like and may come up more frequently.
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  2. #2
    Ahdude's Avatar
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    Great post. The only insight I could add at this time would be to stockpile mats for BoA enchants, mostly spellpower and healing power. With the new races and badge conversion I am sure lots of people are buying BoAs right now.
    Last edited by Ahdude; September 30th, 2010 at 10:55 AM.

  3. #3
    I'll take a pass at this.

    What items have you stockpiled, and in what volume?
    1) Glyphs - about 1500 so far.
    2) - just one so far, trying to get more
    3) I may try to pick up some twink items
    4) After 4.0.1, I will stockpile some low level enchants

    Why have you stockpiled these items?
    1) With 4.0.1, the perma-glyphs will cause everyone to try to fill their spellbooks, I intend to unload all of these as soon as 4.0.1 is out. I am expecting that all glyphs will be selling at 10g minimum once 4.0.1 hits and possibly more like 25g each.
    2) We've been over it a bunch, but the newer information, turning ZG into feats of strength indicates these may not be around.
    3) Lots of low levels leveling.
    4) Same thing here. I'm more interested in these because I think there is no way supply can keep up with demand for lower level enchants.

    What is your estimated ROI for this investment?
    1) I've invested between 3-4k so far and expect a minimum return of 15k, but my expectation is 35-50k.
    2) I've only invested time so far while going for mounts. Worst case scenario, my mage will learn it for free. Best case is 10k+.
    3) Unknown
    4) I expect 200-300% return on vanilla enchants.

    Have you avoided stockpiling an item that others seem to recommend? If so, why?
    I'm not touching any old world materials (ore, herbs, etc). People will be able to fly to farm them and people will be gathering them while leveling archaeology. Given the greatly reduced time investment to farming them and the increase in incidental farming, I expect prices to drop.

    I'm also avoiding the items to craft legendaries (even though I want elementium ore for my own Thunderfury once Garr finally drops the second binding...grrrr). I expect that if guilds/individuals want these achievements, they will go and run the instances a lot more. With the changes coming in Cataclysm and the hugely increased health pools, I expect that a lot more people will be able to solo BWL and MC.

    As far as the guild mechanics go, I'm also excited about this and trying to figure out where to place my mains/alts for the best benefit.

    I'm not exactly sure what I'm going to do at the start of Cataclysm. I will not be farming. We also don't have a new obvious moneymaking profession like previous expansions. So, I will probably just be focused on leveling, slowing raising all my trade skills and working on new achievements, pets, mounts and factions.

  4. #4
    I'll be attempting to stockpile as much saronite ore as possible once the market really tanks right around the week before cataclysm. I'll be using it to prospect, create bars and sell raw to jewelcrafting, alchemy, blacksmithing and engineering levelers. I will also look into disenchanting crafted rings for infinite dust which will hopefully triple in price later on into the cataclysm expansion. Alchemy and jewelcrafting levelers will be the main targets however.

    Saronite ore is easy to stockpile for close to vendor price which means you really don't have much risk when storing it.

  5. #5
    Ahdude's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Markco View Post
    Saronite ore is easy to stockpile for close to vendor price which means you really don't have much risk when storing it.
    A quick check on wowhead shows saronite ore's vendor price is 25s, are you really getting close to that price? On my realm the average price is 60-70s.

  6. #6
    Sterling's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ahdude View Post
    A quick check on wowhead shows saronite ore's vendor price is 25s, are you really getting close to that price? On my realm the average price is 60-70s.
    vendors for 1.25g. You should be buying everything at 62.5s or less, as you could vendor them at a profit.
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  7. #7
    Yeah, I discovered that little trick last night. I didn't realize that there was such a difference between the ore and bar vendor prices.

  8. #8
    Ahdude's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sterling View Post
    vendors for 1.25g. You should be buying everything at 62.5s or less, as you could vendor them at a profit.
    Wow nice trick...I feel like such a noob.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Sterling View Post
    vendors for 1.25g. You should be buying everything at 62.5s or less, as you could vendor them at a profit.
    If you like that one, don't forget to check out the borean leather ---> Arctic Fur conversions!

    Now to take a stab at this post myself...

    I'm stockpiling the usual, but I am placing a main focus on leveling mats. I've collected roughly:

    ~2500 Netherweave Cloth
    ~5000 Saronite Ore
    One tab full of Enchanting Mats of all levels
    Close to two tabs worth of Herbs of all levels
    ~3000 Glyphs
    (2 tabs worth of other prof leveling mats)

    The netherweave will become bags and the rest of the stuff just sold off for powerlevelers. I couldn't agree more that most of this stuff will level off, so selling quick will be key.

    I will be shocked if I dont see 200% ROI across the board. Expecting more, but I like to surprise myself.

    I've been avoiding BoE's, it's just something I haven't really done since the big twink change. I still also have no plans to pick up the Turlemorph either.

    Either way, as long as I cover the costs of epic fliers on my non-310% flying alts and a couple knick-knacks I'm not going too crazy.

    -------------

    I read about Anaalius' amazing flip. Egads that's smexy schtuff!

  10. #10
    Sterling's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pennyworth View Post
    ~2500 Netherweave Cloth
    ~5000 Saronite Ore
    One tab full of Enchanting Mats of all levels
    Close to two tabs worth of Herbs of all levels
    ~3000 Glyphs
    (2 tabs worth of other prof leveling mats)

    I've been avoiding BoE's, it's just something I haven't really done since the big twink change. I still also have no plans to pick up the Turlemorph either.

    Either way, as long as I cover the costs of epic fliers on my non-310% flying alts and a couple knick-knacks I'm not going too crazy.
    An emphasis on leveling mats. Very curious how this will pan out.

    As for BOEs, look for an article from me in 1-3 days from now. I might be able to help you out.

    You can buy 310% flying in Cataclysm for 5000g. Strangely, "old world" flying is only 100g. Perhaps this is a placeholder amount to allow all beta testers to fly around.
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