As Darkmoon Fair 3 has ended I am undecided whether to continue making darkmoon trinkets. Yes, I know that I can just make scrolls and not actually make cards until later. But as a practical matter I need to know now as I will need vastly more herbs if I plan to make cards than I would if I don't plan to make cards.
Situation - I have 12 scribes. For the past fair 11 of them made cards for trinkets (one of them made only a few cards as I was keeping scrolls for an epic BOA stave. I will probably have that one continue making one of the other staves this time).
Darkmoon cards have been very good to me. The cards/trinkets I made for/during Fair 1 ended up netting me (after costs) about 900k gold. The trinkets I made for Fair 2 netted me about 618k gold (note that the last few of those trinkets I actually sold during Fair 3 but I consider them part of my Fair 2 analysis).
For Fair 3, made 37 trinkets. I've sold 10 of them, leaving 27 left to sell.
My cost for the first 24 trinkets I made was 2400g per trinket. The last few trinkets were made using herbs after 5.1 so the cost was closer to 4300g per trinket.
At current herb prices, it will cost me about 3600g per trinket. Herb prices have come down since the end of the fair. Because of the quantity of herbs that I need to make that many cards I have to buy all lower price herbs that I see throughout the next 3 weeks or my costs will rise. That is, herb prices tend to be their lowest in the 2 1/2 weeks right after the end of the fair. So if I want to make cards I must buy herbs now.
Right now, trinkets are still profitable. As of today, I would say sell prices of trinkets (these are net of AH fees) are:
Strength - 17k
Agility - 16k
Caster - 13k
Healing - 16k
Tank - 11k
After Fair 2, the healing trinket actually went up in price about a week after fair end, the other stayed either the same as at end of fair or went down maybe 10%.
My perception is that I am selling trinkets much more briskly now that prices are down. Based upon what I have sold thus far from Fair 3 I've covered my costs for all the trinkets/cards that I made and am at 60k profit thus far. I expect to make another 300-350k for the trinkets that I have left so my net profit for Fair 3 will probably be in the 360k to 400k range which while less than before is still quite profitable.
The question is whether to continue on for the next fair. I'm sure prices will come back some. Tank trinket was briefly under 10k (I didn't offer mine for sale at that point) and caster has gotten near 10k a couple of time. There are several people selling trinkets but I believe that I am the highest volume seller on my realm.
I am thinking that so long as I can make trinkets for under 5k a trinket that I will likely keep making a profit on these and should just carry on. Any thoughts?