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  1. #1
    Zenit's Avatar
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    Inscription Viva Las Vegas?

    Apparently Inscription is going to be the new casino where you roll against the house, Blizzard in this case, at a chance of winning gold. 1 [item lang=cata]Blackfallow Ink[/item] and 1 get you 1 lottery ticket in the form of a [item lang=cata]Mysterious Fortune Card[/item]. Using the card gives you the odds of winning the following:

    1 in 58 - 5000 gold
    1 in 58 - 1000 gold
    1 in 58 - 200 gold
    2 in 58 - 50 gold
    1 in 58 - 20 gold
    5 in 58 - 5 gold
    5 in 58 - 1 gold
    16 in 58 - 50 silver
    26 in 58 - 10 silver

    List of cards can be found here.

    is 50 silver without the rep discount and X cost for the 2 pigments to make the ink. If your ink cost is less than 4.5 gold per, the odds of making money is 11/58 or 18.9%. If cost of ink is less than 19.5 gold per, odds of profiting drops to 6/58 of 10.3%. 18.9% odds are pretty good say 6 months into Catalysm and your really bored and have no viable source of income. Price of herbs and ink should drop by then.

  2. #2
    Meyer's Avatar
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    1 / 58 odds can’t be right?

    1 5000 5000
    1 1000 1000
    1 200 200
    2 50 100
    1 20 20
    5 5 25
    5 1 5
    16 0,5 8
    26 0,1 2,6
    Gold: 6360,6
    Average per. card: 109,6655

    This means that the ink will have a value of around 109G??

    If thats true you can buy 1.000 cards at 19,5G each + 0,5G for the paper and for an investment of 20.000G you'll in average win:

    Cardds Odds Prize per Prize tot
    1000 0,017241379 5000 86.207
    1000 0,017241379 1000 17.241
    1000 0,017241379 200 3.448
    1000 0,034482759 50 1.724
    1000 0,017241379 20 345
    1000 0,086206897 5 431
    1000 0,086206897 1 86
    1000 0,275862069 0,5 138
    1000 0,448275862 0,1 45
    1 109.666

    Or am I getting something wrong? I haven't studied the cards its the first time i hear about it, im just saying that the numbers must be wrong.

    I think we will see that there will be a higher droperate on the 0,1G and 0,5G cards - making the average profit drop to something.

    That said - A money lottery means that there will be a fixed price floor on herbs and inks. If you can turn in crafted material for money without having to sell it on AH - you will never se herbs / inks be on Ah for more then a few minutes if inscriptor riskfree can buy the materials and make a little gold.
    Last edited by Meyer; October 20th, 2010 at 01:49 AM.

  3. #3
    Zenit's Avatar
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    @Meyer...I'm not sure how you had set up your math. My calculations is from the probability of getting a card, just like the probability of getting the ZG tiger mount per boss kill. It's just the chance to get that card per loot. It does not mean you will be sure to get the 5000g card if you flip 58 cards.

    There are 58 types of possible cards; e.g. 1x 5000g card, 26x 10 silver card, etc. The X in 58 is the probability of getting the card which rewards a certain level of silver/gold.

    In my last paragraph, I have done a price break analysis. Adding the cost of materials and the probability of getting a for-profit card, it came down to what is considered profitable to you.

    For example:
    If the total cost of material is less than 5 gold, one would have the odds of 18.9% win and 81.1% lose per turn of card.
    If the total cost of material is less than 19.5 gold, one would have the odds of 10.3% win and 89.7% lose per turn of card.
    What it means: you spend less than 5g for the odds of winning 5 gold or more, same applies for the 2nd case.

    I'm showing the cost analyst at which investing your time and materials in this lottery will be profitable. I'm not saying that blackfallow ink would cost 19.5g gold or any fixed price. The price of ink will be set by other factors; i.e. raid flasks, off-hand tomes, etc. As an indirect effect, this will have a greater influence on the price of flask via the cost of herbs. Flask will be used in raids thus the demand will be greater, followed by viable/profitable inscription crafts. These cards will see a much smaller market and for folks who love to try their luck. I believe this is an effort to remove the city "fine the card" hussle that occured at some point and give the "house", i.e. Blizzard, a share of the gambling profits.

    To draw a real life analogy, authorities are always on the look out for illegal gambling places and busting them when evidence are overwhelming. Why do authorities have their panties twisted over this? Its not because it is evil, it is not just because the authority that say gambling is evil. It is simply that the authorities want part of the pie, via licensed casinos and gaming tax. They are not willing to allow individuals to profit by themselves. This is exactly what Blizzard is doing. They are controlling the inflation of the server economy via gold sinks. They have thrown in so much gold sinks but they cannot stop inflation. Evidence for this? 1 million gold cap per toon, up 4 times what it used to be. Individuals being WoW millionaires through AH trading, LK's Crimson mount selling for 200k gold, Haris Pilton epic bags etc. this list goes on. Think about it.
    Last edited by Zenit; October 20th, 2010 at 08:06 AM.

  4. #4
    Meyer's Avatar
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    I get your calculation In my post im just showing that i DO NOT BELIVE that the chance for getting a 5.000G card is only odds 1:58 - i think that the properbility to get a 5000G card is a lot lower then 1:58.

    If you in average will get 5000G every 58 cards - that alone will give you an average of 86G per card (5000/58). I don't belive that this will be the case, since that is way to much.!

    So my first point was that even with 58 different cards i don't think the proberbility to get one of the cards are 1:58.

    My other point is that what ever the real odds on the cards will be, it will ensure a fixed pricebuttom on herbs / inks, since you without AH risk / AH work can turn herbs / ink in for money.! So we will se a pricefloor on the herbs / inks close to the payout on the cards id this average payout is high enough.

  5. #5
    I agree with Meyer on this one. The way to calculate your average win is to take the probability of each outcome and multiply by how much you win. You take all those results and add them up. For example, let's suppose we play a game. You roll two dice. If you roll a six, you'll win $1. If you roll double sixes, you win $25. Anything else, you win nothing.

    The odds of rolling a single six is 10/36. The odds of rolling double sixes is 1/36. The odds of everything else is 25/36. So, we have:
    ($1 x 10/36) + ($25 x 1/36) + ($0 x 25/36) = .972222

    So, you would win, on average (over a very long time) about 97 cents.

    Now let's suppose I charge you $1 per play. There are two ways to calculate this out. The first and easiest way is to subtract $1 from your previous result of 97 cents and realize that you lose about 3 cents per play on average. The other way to do this is to start over from the beginning, taking into account how much you actually win. In that case, you make nothing on a single six, you make $24 on a double six and you lose $1 on everything else. In that case, the equation becomes:

    ($0 x 10/36) + ($24 x 1/36) + ($-1 x 25/36) = -.027777

    So, Meyer's calculation for average win over time is correct. If you made a boatload of cards, you would win, on average (with lots and lots of samples) almost 110g per card. That is if the 1/58 is correct. I would have to agree that it is probably not correct and, even though there may be 58 types of cards, the chance of getting each is not the same. The odds of getting the 5000g card is probably more like 1/5000 (or worse).

    At any rate, if we are able to figure out the approximate probability of each card, we can calculate the average value quite easily. If we have that, we can figure out how to price these cards and make money from them.

  6. #6
    Zerohour's Avatar
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    1 in 58 does not guarantee you anything every 58 attempts, it means you are getting closer and closer to the chance that you will eventually see one. Like the mounts, people mistakenly believed that if they ran ZG or Strat 100 times, they would be almost assured of the drop. It's 1 in 100 chance, right? Correct, except it's not a diminishing outcome. I am not a statistics expert, but I can use common sense. I've seen reports of over 400 attempts on Baron with no mount.

    The way drops work are the game rolls each time for the drop irregardless of past outcomes. It's like trying to pull the Ace of Spades off the top of the deck after completely shuffling the deck each time. Or, you have a 100 sided die. On one side of the die you have the roll that you want. Each roll is 1 in 100, and everytime you roll it you come closer statistically to the result you are looking for but at no point are you ever guaranteed a roll. Meyer's chart illustrates the probability of each roll actually happening per roll; with a larger sampling the numbers change drastically as there will be non-uniform distribution of the results. In other words, your 5,000 gold card could take 1,000 tries to get, at which point you've spent 10,000g to get there.

    This is total gambling and should be avoided if you are looking to make a guaranteed profit.

    Now, how to profit off of this. The average person is horrible at math. But the average person also likes to play games of chance. Flash forward 6 months into the expansion - herbs will settle in price. I'm betting 20g per stack. One stack should net you (using today's stats) 6 inks. This makes 6 fortune cards. The total cost here (no rep) is 23g. Pricing on these will more than likely be around 10-15g per card. In this scenario, that's 160-300% ROI.

    I think these will be wildly popular with certain players. The thought of turning 15g into 10 silver makes me shudder however.

    Another case in point - Decks. 1 in 32 per card, the odds of getting any particular card were always equal, although people placed higher value on Aces for some wild and crazy reason. Your odds were 1 in 4 of a particular suit, and 1 in 8 of a particular number irregardless of suit. The distribution was NEVER equal, if you made 1,000,000 cards, your distribution would look erratic. The odds were comparable:

    Just FYI, the frequency of drawing multiple 5000g cards from a 58 card deck with all things being equal:
    1 - 1 in 58
    2 - 1 in 3,364
    3 - 1 in 195,112
    4 - 1 in 11,316,496
    Last edited by Zerohour; October 20th, 2010 at 11:27 AM.

  7. #7
    Zenit's Avatar
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    All points of view have merit and duly noted. Good to have such discussion as this thread had over 45 view and 0 replies for over 4 days. The sure way is to do real analysis using controlled experiment, i.e. X number of cards crafted in Cata, for the loot percentage. Whether it is considered false advertising or not, people will still buy into the 1/58 fact from surface value. As a business(wo)man, knowing how to price this lottery ticket especially duing pre-patch raids-on-farm periods is crucial. People will be bored and back to their trade spam shenanigans, the material market will have settled down and people will be looking to spend their money.

    I have interest in this especially on weeding out this *certain* demographic of folks. With knowledge of profitability per card, I would even snap up low AH priced cards and make a profit from it.

  8. #8
    You are exactly right, Zero about your chances of getting a particular outcome. There are a couple different things we can look at statistically. One is, what is the average outcome per card. In that case, the formula I described is what we are talking about. This is sort of like predicting how many potions you'll get if you're potion spec'd. If I proc an extra 20% of the time, then over time, I expect to get 1.2 potions per craft. If I make 1000 potions, I am not (most likely) going to get exactly 1200 potions. However, I should be within spitting distance it.

    The mistake that people commonly make is using that type of formula to think that their odds get better over time. This is the fallacy. Each attempt is separate. For example, the chance of catching Old Crafty on a single cast is estimated to be 1/5000. It took me about 8800 fish to get it. The chances of me getting it on cast 8801 were still 1/5000. However, the chances that it would take that long (or longer) are calculated differently. In that case we use the following:

    1 - (odds of failure) ^ (x number of attempts) = chance of success in x attempts or less

    So, in my case, the odds that it would take me 8800 or less attempts was approximately 83%.

    At any rate, this is the sort of thing that most people boggle about and really struggle to apply to their situation. This can easily be seen by the number of times this formula has appeared on wowhead.com.

  9. #9
    Just for clarity, when we are talking about average win, it is theoretical. It is what you would expect to approach as you did more and more attempts. This is also wildly affected by odds. For example, if you are talking about coin flipping. You'll approach and stay fairly close to average after a few dozen flips. If you are talking about rolling two dice or transmute procs, it may take several hundred rolls to see an average emerge in testing. If you move to something like a lottery, you'd have to do trillions (or far higher) of tests to see averages emerge.

 

 

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