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  1. #1
    Mugsley's Avatar
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    Don't Jump off the Vendor Cliff

    I'm still trying to get my head around this. When the vendor change happened, there was a mass call to cut and vendor uncommons while they were still high, while at the same time look out for people trying to move ore backstocks.

    What confuses me is why any JC would *ever* cut+vendor, even in a pinch. Unless you don't have an enchanter, it is a straight loss to blanket cut+vendor even at current prices. Even if you're lacking the Enchanter, get a friend or guildie to DE, or negotiate with someone in trade (let them keep a % of the enchanting mats or set a fee).

    If you have to start a new gbank to store all the enchanting mats, DO IT. I guarantee they will be worth more in the long run than vendoring the gems.

    Do I have major backstock? No. I do have about 200 stacks of ore to melt, but I'm not in a major hurry to do it. I had never planned to vendor gems; even Zephyrite. Although it's not a jewelry mat, it is a daily quest gem, so it's worth more on those days than vendoring, and therefore worth keeping.


    So tell me, where is my disconnect? What am I missing? All of the statements above are common truths in the goldmaking community and certainly aren't news. The "vendor rush" simply says to me that those people never had other plans for their raw uncommons outside of vendoring them anyway; and that they simply aren't creative enough to move the ore into other items. Otherwise, there is no reason to melt ore now versus after 4.1 hits.
    Last edited by Mugsley; April 12th, 2011 at 04:02 PM.
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  2. #2
    Mugsley's Avatar
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    I want to add something here. When "vendor price" for both ores was originally calculated, it was used to weigh the risk of buying a stack of ore at a given price. In other words, if you bought ore at vendor + X, you were assuming X gold in risk that may never come from a given stack of ore. However, thanks to shuffling and the continued popularity of cut rare gems, that risk has been relatively low.

    Does your risk increase with this change? Absolutely. However, there is no reason to panic; especially over the ore itself. There are simply too many avenues to shift ore into where profits are available and quite good. For example, move Obsidium Ore into skeleton keys or other similar BS items (even bars or folded obsidium sell quite well). For Elementium Ore, the next best use is clearly to move into bars which eventually end up as belt buckles.

    In other words, start getting creative, don't start vendoring!
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  3. #3
    pahr's Avatar
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    From my (newbie) understanding of the situation, it has more to do with people shifting from just vendoring to some of the other end-routes for the shuffling and flooding already highly competitive markets.

    As an overly simplified example: If you have say, 10 shufflers, and 3 of them just vendored, 4 were primarily ending in enchanting, and 3 were doing JC as their main revenue. One of the vendorers switches to enchanting, one switches to JC, one just quits the process altogether. Making the huge assumption that the original enchanters were the primary force in the supply and prices of the enchanting game, there is now another. While the ore prices will drop, it will not be enough to compensate for the decrease in revenue as there is now another person needing to undercut the market who may have the time to relist every time they are undercut, probably dropping the market below materials cost. Material prices decrease as people shift to selling those instead of the scrolls, and let's face it, there are only so many enchanters buying on any given server... supply will be greater than demand. The same scenario for the jewelcrafters.

    Eventually people leave those markets for greener pastures and prices will stabilize. I think most people just don't want to have to wait till that happens to ditch their stock/start making a reasonable profit again.

  4. #4
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    The disconnect that you have is with volumes.

    currently on my server hypnotic dust is selling at 5-6g each. That makes it unprofitable compared with vendoring. While I keep a back stock of enough uncommons to support the dailies, there is way too much available volume. I actaully vendor on a regular basis.

    I go through ~200-400 stacks of obsidium ore each week that I pick up for ~30g a stack. the amount of uncommons that come out of this can't be sold through standard methods. Im not thinking that ALL should be vendored, any real profiteer knows that always having a full stock of metas and dailies available will be more profitable, but there is only so many that you can actually go through.

    Vendoring is an easy way to liquidate ~10,000 gems (which is what I was sitting on)

    The second part of this is the inevitable crash which will occur when vendor prices drop. I believe that I'm the only person on my server keeping the price where it is. Once my vendor floor drops, I imagine the price will as well. I would much rather buy new stacks at ~20g/stack which is where I'll start picking it up again and liquidate my old ones at 54g/stack while I can.

  5. #5
    Aeg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mugsley View Post
    If you have to start a new gbank to store all the enchanting mats, DO IT. I guarantee they will be worth more in the long run than vendoring the gems.
    If can vendor the gem for 9g today and when 4.1 hits buy the uncommons off the AH for 5g (which will happen soon enough) then I now have 4g in my pocket I did not have earlier. If you have 0 dusts/essences on the AH right now you are missing out on profits, but I am trying to predict exactly how much dust I will be able to sell before 5g uncommons are available on the AH or I can get them from prospecting.

    Point is the shuffle is not dead but all I am doing in a sense is shorting the uncommon market.

    And in regards to those being worth more in the long run I highly disagree. A lower floor on those uncommons will drop the enchanting market prices if anyone on your server is still doing it in bulk. The fact is enchant prices are based on the value of the ore you pay really. The 9g vendor value is just a failsafe and lets you know not to craft rings to DE if the market craps out on you. with a lower floor on uncommons dust can have a lower floor as well.
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  6. #6
    The short answer is that it's not worth it to craft and DE versus vendoring.

    I generally go through 150-250 stacks of ore per day and almost all of this post-prospect time is done while AFK. It's not currently possible to mass-DE items without writing an out of game macro (and breaking the EULA). I can empty my bags, craft 80 uncommon gems and then AFK. When I come back, I just push one button and all 80 are sold and I can make another 80 afk.

    Not just that, but enchanting mats are already in heavy supply on my server. With Bountiful Bags coming online for most guilds this week, that will be another 15% of mats coming on to the market which will probably mean a 15% price reduction, (assuming the price elasticity of demand is around 1).

    It's still worth it for me to DE carnelians (from spikes) and, occasionally, jasper rings (because they only use 1 gem). The rest, other than nightstones, typically get vendored because of the volumes I'm working with daily: I generate more gems of a given color in a week than there is demand for that gem on the 1-2 days per week that that gem is a JC daily.

    Take Alicite for example:

    If I DE an Alicite Pendant, I'll get on average:
    1.4 Hypnotic Dust
    0.55 Lesser Celestial Essence

    To make one of those, I need 2 Alicite and a Jewelers Setting.

    2 Alicites are worth 9g each when cut and vendored (that's the opportunity cost of the gem - the value I'm giving up), so that's 18g+0.375g for the setting = 18.375g minimum that I would need to recoup, after all AH fees.

    Hypnotic dust on my realm sells for 5g on the AH. Lesser Celestial is 9g. That's a total of 1.4*5 + 0.55*9 = 11.95g

    In other words, I am losing a bit over 6g every single time I craft and DE a pendant. That's before AH fees and doesn't include my time, which I happen to value a lot.

    To make this worthwhile, the prices would have to be more than double what they currently are on enchanting mats. I don't see that happening, especially with bountiful bags.

  7. #7
    I will copy/paste a post I had in another thread on this forum. It fits very well here.

    Obsidium Ore -> Obsidium Bar ->


    As you can see, Obsidium Ore can be used for more than the shuffle, if you feel you cant output more because the market is full atm, use some of it to make other goods that sell well.
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  8. #8
    Aeg's Avatar
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    Deathspiral you are forgetting the Rare Jewelry which depending on your server can cover the cost of your dust completely.

    10% chance at a blue necklace - So 10 crafts to get you one blue costs you 10 x 20g(2 uncommons and a jeweler setting) = 200g.

    Can you sell the blues for 200g? I can usually with a couple reposts and any tank ones can go upwards of 500g. The dust from the 9 other pendants are now profit. I do understand the time component, I just wanted to make sure you were not missing out on profits.
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  9. #9
    What you're overlooking is that the supply of ore isn't going away. Yes, if I were to stop shuffling, you'd be right. However, I've already got thousands of dust and essence sitting around waiting to be sold. If I cut/vendor the gems I've got now, then spend that gold on more ore, by the time I would have been able to sell what dust I've already got, then started selling the new dust, I will have more ore than I've got now. Inventory just sitting there isn't earning gold unless the value of the inventory is going up.

    I suspect that either you manage to sell more dust/essence than I do, or I shuffle on a larger scale than you do. Either is possible, the OCD is strong in this one. According to TUJ, my server sells about 250 dust a day, and I'm in the top 3 sellers consistently, so there's room for some improvement there, but let's be honest, if I go the DE route on all the ore I shuffle, I'd have to be the only seller, and I'd still have to expand the market.

  10. #10

    I can't see ali/hess d/e working on my realm

    Last time I checked, dust was under 3g and GCE was about 32.
    Blue jasper rings can break 100g but some can sell for 40g.

    Jasper and carn is still worth d/e

    The spreadsheet had ali at 6.7 and hess at 7.9. It is quicker and I can get more gold to just vendor the ali/hess.

 

 

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