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  1. #1
    Praxel's Avatar
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    Flipping DMF trinkets for decks

    So I have a thought on Darkmoon decks, tell me what you think.

    My current plan is to assemble decks, make trinkets, hold the trinkets for 2-3 weeks after the Faire leaves, and then sell them for maximum profit. This is great and all, but the recent Whiptail explosion has sent DMF prices spiraling downwards. I'll still make a profit, but it's not going to be worth the amount of time I've had my money tied up in these cards. If there's another bug or change in herb drop rates, the decks I assembled last month for 10k won't be worth the Inferno Ink I used to make them

    So, here's my idea.

    Make the trinkets and hold them after the Faire as usual. And the instead of flipping them, offer to trade the trinket for its corresponding deck plus some cash. For example, offer to trade for + 4k. When the Faire comes back, flip it back into a trinket, and repeat every month.

    Advantages:
    • Repeatable every month. Each deck will be good for a couple thousand gold every month.
    • Nobody is currently working this market, and I mean nobody. No competition on my server at ALL.
    • You're getting paid to increase your Darkmoon Faire reputation. So that's nice.
    • When the market dries up, or competition emerges, you can always offload the trinket.


    Disadvantages:
    • Holding decks ties up a lot of your cash flow. I have six decks on hand, that's essentially 100k in resources tied up. Might be worth it, flipping each deck for a 3k commission is basically an 18% recurring monthly ROI.
    • If the bottom falls out of the market, all those decks you're holding may become a liability. Patch 4.1 has new trinkets in it... you may find your 13k trinkets are suddenly listing for 3k each after the demand shifts.
    • Requires trade chat barking. This isn't a scheme you can pull off using the Auction House. On the other hand, no 5% fee.......


    Opinions? What do you guys think?
    Tichondrius (Horde): Member of The Basin
    Rokk (85 Hunter): Main, dual-gatherer, profiteer, honorary Goblin

  2. #2
    ExtremeEagle's Avatar
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    Would definitely require getting a feel for the environment on your server. I've had a few people whisper me since I also held onto my trinkets until here lately then posted them, most people seem to be looking to pay 250-500g plus the deck for the trinket.

    One other worry is that since it requires barking, you could find competition quickly from anyone else who had been holding onto theirs.

  3. #3
    Kathroman's Avatar
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    Yeah, I'd prefer to wait and see what happens on the PTR. Maybe try it this upcoming faire, but don't convert all of the decks into trinkets right away - then you at least have options. If the market dies, you can sell the decks to people looking for rep. The PTR will likely last through 1 more faire, so you can re-evaluate afterwards.

    If the new trinkets kill the market, I would much rather be stuck holding onto decks than trinkets. Well. that's not true, I would MUCH rather be holding a big pile of gold, but I'd settle for decks.
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  4. #4
    I think it's a good idea. It's not a windfall, but you would be reducing your exposure in the process. And, if you want the DMF rep, it's a double win. I actually had someone offer me this deal right after the faire left. I ended up making the trade for 2.5k.

  5. #5
    Generally this is a good idea although i do have a couple of comments.

    Firstly my main concern would be the incoming patch which is likely to cause a significant drop in the demand for these so you are taking quite a reasonable risk before we at least know more about the patch.

    Secondly i would suggest 1-2 weeks rather than 2-3. While 2-3 looks like it might be better it is past the half way point and it has a psychological effect on many people as they start looking forward to the next faire instead of seeing they have missed the last faire. Also for any trinket this will work with will usually be all sold out after the first week.

    Lastly barking isn't a requirement although it could increase your sales. I have used the Ah to sell all my cards and trinkets and only had any personal contact if someone actually contacts me with an offer.

    Overall this would have been best done up to now and it's a little late to start now really. It could still be very successful but it would have been a lot easier if you'd been doing it the last couple of months when there was much higher demand for the trinkets.

  6. #6
    From last fair I traded 1 hurricane trinket for 1 hurricane card + 3k. Tsunami's I did one for 2.7k and another for 3k plus 3 darkmoon single cards, one volcano I think i traded for 2.5k or around there. I don't advertise this service people just end up making the offer to me.

    I always try and strike up a conversation with the person to make sure they will be equipping it instead of selling it.

    If the bottom falls out of the market, all those decks you're holding may become a liability. Patch 4.1 has new trinkets in it... you may find your 13k trinkets are suddenly listing for 3k each after the demand shifts.
    This is definitely a concern that they will tank in price. The good news you might be able to use wowprogress to figure out when this happens. I feel these are valid assumptions
    1) The content is going to be harder
    2) The number of people clearing the new content are the people clearing the "old"(4.0) content now
    3) The rate at which they clear will probably be around the same (just a hunch. If a Hardcore raid group exists on your server they will probably go back into hardcore mode once new content is released).

    So now wowprogress comes in. You have the "old" data. How many people were clearing raids a month after release? I will be using this data to try and help determine when the market is going to fall apart.

    Another thing to consider is that come patch 4.1 pugs might start clearing 4.0 stuff. If this happens then the darkmoon trinkets are going to be very attractive to pugers.

  7. #7
    Nothing wrong with the process of converting decks to trinkets for players but from what I've seen here, you're selling your services too cheaply.

    When I agree to such a trade, I aim to get 20-25% of the trinket's current value as a fee....so the numbers are usually in the 4-7k range for Tsunami and Hurricane trinkets.
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  8. #8
    Voice of experience here... they go faster than you expect if you're on a mid-level or better server. We started it out as a way for my acheesement toon to gain rep. We offer during the DMF to swap your deck for our trinket so you don't have to go out to the faire to do it. Now I did offer a small tip on that but always reminded people I wasn't paying to turn theirs in, I was offering them my services. If they wanted to risk their item with someone else, they could for a larger profit. (Think something like.... "Did you finally complete your deck but don't want to pay a mage to get to Shattrath? I have every trinket in stock and will trade you your deck for my trinket - fast service with none of the risks!!") I probably got one or two a day but I was also competing against 6 others who were offering 400g or more per deck turn in.

    The last day, I made sure every deck I had was turned in. Sunday afternoon I changed my ad to something like this: "Finally get the final card for your deck only to find the Faire is gone? Every trinket in stock - willing to exchange my trinket for your deck, pst for details!" Now I did charge most of them - one guy happened to be a good friend... That was Sunday afternoon by Tuesday afternoon they were all gone.

    For me, the bonus is the reputation but the cost to get my trinkets should cover most of the cost of the deck over time as well as some of my tips. Also, when herbs tanked I managed to get quite a bit - if I sold one card I paid for up to three cards that I made into the trinket. Eventually I'll probably sell them for less than they are selling for now but in the mean time, I'll have made enough between rep and gold to make me content with that.

    Let me know how it works out for you! Oh and this time around, seeing that you're Horde and maybe on a pvp server, use "Don't want to be ganked while turning in your decks? Let me help you - every trinket in stock right now!"

  9. #9
    Praxel's Avatar
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    I'm on a high pop, fairly progressed server. I've had the offer come in myself several times... anywhere from 2.5k to 5k. I have five trinkets in stock today (sold one for a flat 7k profit last night), so maybe I'll try this and see how it goes.
    Tichondrius (Horde): Member of The Basin
    Rokk (85 Hunter): Main, dual-gatherer, profiteer, honorary Goblin

  10. #10
    Prancer's Avatar
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    A little off topic perhaps, but hopefully helpful...

    I've decided that it isn't it worth taking a risk and investing in decks and trinkets inbetween faires, mostly due to the recent Whiptail influx. There's no telling where the prices will end up this time around.

    What I am going to do though, is simply flip the trinkets. Starting at day 2 of the faire, people are going to start getting desperate as they see the prices go through the floor. This is when I'll be there to buy 'all' their trinkets below AH price. Skip to a week or two later, and they'll be sold on AH for a healthy 50% ROI. With this method you don't have to gamble before the faire comes to town.


    Another thing that you touched on, the rep for turning in decks. I actually use that as additional profit. For example: I buy an earthquake deck for 1500g, have a random guy pay me 500g for turning it in so he can get rep, and then I sell the trinket for 3.5k a few weeks later. I always buy a lot of super cheap 'decks' and have some random guy pay me 500g to turn in each, essentially getting each deck 500g cheaper.

 

 

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