It is currently impossible to turn a profit making decks on my server. The only deck that is worth making is Tsunami, even the Hurricane deck is on the AH for less than materials at the moment. I considered trying to flip them but my server population seems terrible poor and unwilling to spend on trinkets (It took me 2 weeks to move a Tsunami deck for profit). At least they don't mind shelling out for Mysterious Fortune Cards, which I sell by the hundreds nightly.
I'm having a bit of a problem on what to do:
Imagine the following situation:
I got ~300 , and ~1000 which I farmed. and I do not really know what to do with it...
So: I could:
300x @4.5g/item = 1350g
1000x @2.4g/item = 2400g
Mill it, and keep the ink so that I can exchange it for other inks
which would probably be a bad idea, since the herbs for those other inks might be really cheap at the AH
I hope that my calculations are correct... if so, I would get:
1000x --> 50 Inferno Ink + 300
Mill it, and start doing DM card business
That's why I used an excel sheet to check for prices/profit/etc.
You can see the price of the cards as they are atm in the AH... "Volcanic Deck" or whatever deck actually shows the price of the trinket
One thing I don't get is: Why those huge differences within one deck? Volcanic Deck for example has the 2 and 3 of Embers for 600g at the AH, and the Ace for 1364g. I thought that this was totally random, no?
Still within the Volcanic Deck, the average value for one card should be 1515g... so I could potentially buy the 2 and 3 for 600g each, and resell them for 1512, which would make 2x 912g profit
So yeah... I don't know if I should go into that market
Other information that might be of interest:
- I only got 66k atm, so I can't speculate too much
- The darkmoon fairy is coming to town on sunday
And yes... with my 1000x --> 50 Inferno Ink + 300 = 80 I could craft ~8 cards
The average price of all the cards currently at the AH is ~1050g... so I COULD make more than 8k...
Now the final part of this post:
I know that there is no one-and-only way to choose, but if you were in my situation... what would you do? Just keeping the herbs probably does not make any sense atm
Code:Please let me know if I did some calculation errors :)
02.04.2012 2 million gold (liquid)
With inscription and DMF cards you want to try and monetize every step in the crafting chain. With that in mind, the first thing you need to do look at the prices of inferno inks, individual cards, decks, and trinkets. With your blackfallow ink see if it is more profitable to make MFC, glyphs, or trade the ink for inferno ink. After you figure these prices out produce crafts for whichever ones are the most profitable in descending order until you have that particular point saturated (e.g. you could not sell more of that item in the time interval it takes you to produce more inks to replace the items sold). Also, you can take advantage of low herb prices and sell the blackfallow ink directly if you have a situation where you consider yourself overstocked.
@ TraX: Another thing to consider is that making 8 cards is not enough to really have the law of large numbers on your side to help even out the RNG's evil and good spikes in luck. That makes the venture much more speculative than say someone who is making 100+ cards. In other words, even though the average might be around 8k for 8 cards, you stand a decent chance of coming in below that. Consider this more of a decision to take the safe and relatively easy to liquidate or the risky more pain in the butt way to liquidate money. At least on my server its kind of a pain to move cards with competition.
Yes, I am aware of the fact that those 8 cards will not be the big deal ^^
I really didn't intend to start doing big business in the DMF card business, but rather trying to just decide on what to to with this (small) large amount of I got there ^^
But I guess I'll really go for the easy way then... So I'll have to see if I sell the stuff, or if I mill it...
Also I see that the that it currently found in the AH is at 5,79g/ink while buying/milling the would mean 8g/ink
Ah well... I'll have to see then. Thank you both for your replies
Still open for other replies though
02.04.2012 2 million gold (liquid)
I can tell you from experience that the prices on individual cards varies wildly based on competition. Numbers like those are not out of the ordinary. Prices of complete decks and trinkets should give you a soft ceiling for purchasing individual cards, however the prices are extremely unstable. I've bought cards for 200-500g and flipped them for 800-1200g within a week.
In other words, those numbers won't really help you unless you're dealing in a bit larger card volumes.
That being said, you can do a few things: you can trade in /Trade for 9 to "undercut the game." This effectively halves your Blackfallow costs, which will allow you to be quite competitive in both glyphs and . In fact, I would recommend that tactic to help make some solid seed money if you would like to venture into DMCs.
The market conditions I've experienced from building and flipping decks/trinkets ensures I will never become a major player on the production side of the DMC equation. When I can build half a Hurricane Deck for 1200g the day after DMF leaves, I'm more than happy to wait a month to hunt down deals on the other four cards and flip the deck and/or trinket for a major profit.
Food for Thought.
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I updated the previous darkmoon faire card analysis spreadsheet. It's available here: http://db.tt/dwrEANE
I changed quite a few things. The formatting is much better so the numbers are easier to read with the first column always being visible. I deleted the second workbook and opted instead for fields where you can enter the appropriate value yourself. As a result, assuming nothing drastically changed, the spreadsheet will be easily updated. The motivation for the changes was to reflect the fact that you do not have to settle on a 10:1 blackfallow ink to inferno ink exchange rate that Jessica Sellers provides, and the updated spreadsheet lets you take that into account. The image below captures the most of the changes
Note: All the fields that are colored yellow require user input or at least that the initial values presented remain there. The field in A3 has to have a non-zero value or subsequent calculations in other tables go awry, which is ok since you will always have at least a 10:1 ratio available.
When taking into account the actual exchange rate you use when doing player trade ins or the vendor you simply need to enter that ratio into field A2. For instance, if I have a 7.5 blackfallow ink to inferno ink trade in ratio enter 7.5 or if it is an 80 to 9 blackfallow ink to inferno ink trade ratio enter in 80/9. The initial setting in the spreadsheet is 10:1 exchange rate, with 6 blackfallow inks per stack of herbs, and 1 inferno ink per stack of herbs, which corresponds to Whiptail's milling table and the npc ink traders trade ratio.
In the example picture you enter the amount of blackfallow produced in field A4 and the amount of inferno ink enter in for field A6. If you are using Twilight Jasmine or Whiptail herbs one stack produces 1 inferno ink and 6 blackfallow ink. Cinderbloom, Azshara's Veil, Stormvine, and Heartblossom produce .5 inferno ink and 5 blackfallow ink, so you will use those values for the purposes of the calculations.
There are 5 different tables which are pictured below.
Spreadsheet 1 calculates how much it costs to produce each card based on the price per stack of the herbs used and the unit price of each volatile life.
Spreadsheet 2 calculates the profit margins based on the server's prices for the the avg cost the decks when averaged together.
NOTE: The threshold and fallback values that are calculated based on data entered into field D238. You are going to want to decide on what the maximum stack price for herbs and the maximum unit price for volatiles you are willing to pay, then locate your production cost per card in the first spreadsheet's table. Enter that value as your production cost. The threshold value is calculated based on the production cost per card, taking into account how much of that card type contributes to the average card market price. Then that percent is multiplied times the production cost to find the threshold, the idea being that that is the lowest you can sell the trinket for and still recoup the sunk production cost. The fallback price is the market price for that card's trinket / 8. The fallback price is the amount you would like to sale the card for in order to have a return equal to that of the trinket (if you had all the cards necessary). I recommend using this table for your threshold in Tradeskillmaster and the fallback price for your fallback in Tradeskillmaster.
An implication of calculating the threshold based on card type is that you should buy any card that is below that card's production cost & whose fallback is greater than the threshold.
Spreadsheet 3 calculated how much it costs to make a glyph if you use the inferno inks produced by milling herbs for use in glyphs. A negative number represents how much gold in deposit costs is necessary to accrue before the break even point.
Spreadsheet 4 calculated how much it costs to produce a deck of cards (8 cards)
Spreadsheet 5 calculates the profit margins on average per deck using the values entered earlier for the trinket prices (or deck prices if you wish). You could modify the trinket prices to instead represent the amount made by making the decks then charging to turn the decks in before selling the trinkets (sum the average deck price with how much is charged for the turn in).
Last edited by Reverb; September 26th, 2011 at 06:23 PM.