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  1. #1
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    Something is extremely fishy about mote of harmony.

    I know I may be saying something obvious since I've been gone from the expansion since the launch but I noticed most guides here do not mention it.


    I noticed that it is very possible mote of harmony has a special internal cooldown of probability to drop. My first reaction was that "nah, it's just in your head, RNG is playing tricks on you", but the occurrence of the phenomenon is too common to avoid noticing.


    For example, the most blatant examples: Fly around for 8 minutes and then kill 1-2 lowbie mobs, 1 mote of harmony, then find 5-6 or more mobs kill them, 1 or 2 motes of harmony, then nothing on the next couple and then you pull a humongous amount, more than 20 and you get again 1-2 motes only, and it goes on.


    It's as if the algorithm is not simplistic but it works like that with diminishing returns: "give him a chance of that #% to get a mote, however, diminish his chance incrementally (and never zero it to not look totally fake) to get more than 2 or 4 in the same pull, but then increase his chance progressively as the time goes by".


    In case anyone thinks Blizzard isn't into algorithms like that, I urge to google of their official interviews' remarks that at least some quest items (of not important quests at the time) do have "rigged" chances on purpose (e.g. "if he doesn't get the 10th of 9/10 items after 8 attempts, what the heck, just give him a huge chance to not frustrate him".

    By the way, why I believe this is happening. I have a theory that is my only one and it makes perfect sense to me: The very reason of existence of the item, is also what would drive them to do it, make main characters play mainly (I'm sure most of you here, as me, were frustrated at first seeing their alt professions being handicapped by it), so that this internal cooldown/diminishing return system would make it more rewarding and natural to progress in professions and gold via a main character, more time played leads to more motes gained, not just roll a warrior that you never played, pull 200,000 mobs in 2 minutes and call it a day, you'd have to play it, and that algorithm would ensure it.

    I was thinking, it may be tied to the initial mass-loot changes at the launch of 5.0. There was a lot of nerfing of items like cloth, but what most didn't speculate, was that it may be tied to the single pull or not. i.e. there may be higher chances for a mote on 10 pulls of 1 mob than 1 pull of 10 mobs of the same type. I'm sure many have noticed it.
    Last edited by Sterling; January 19th, 2014 at 07:43 PM.

  2. #2
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    That's a pretty interesting theory. Have you tried actually testing this theory in any way yet or is this just based on observations?

  3. #3
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    You mean analyse it with rigorous recording? Because I'm testing it every time I play.

    I know it's not very scientifically rigorous but I know it's too obvious, haven't you noticed how inexplicably low the drop rate is after pulling a humongous amount of mobs if you have already looted a few of them [plus it's extremely rare to see more than 1 or 2 motes in a huge pull]?

    edit: I do not mean once tested of course, but generally, most of my humongous pulls of mobs, very rarely net a good result if a single mob right before had a good result, and this violates the law of simple probability; probability does not decrease if you had a lucky streak and it does not increase if you had bad luck, the opposite is called the gambler's fallacy (look it up) and if it actually happens (as the gambler's fallacy predicts), it's rigged by coding.




    Update:

    I noticed the highest drop rate mob in wowhead supports the hypothesis very strongly: http://www.wowhead.com/npc=69580#comments

    It's a mob that basically drops a huge rate of motes, more than 73%, however, it doesn't always drop loot Don't you know what that means? When it eventually drops something, the game gives an increased probability for motes, because after all, if they were truly random they would drop at a similar rate with other mobs of a similar level, and I seriously doubt that particular mob is special in its rate of mobs specifically (it doesn't have any particular importance in the game whatsoever).
    Last edited by fateswarm; January 20th, 2014 at 12:53 PM.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by fateswarm View Post
    I know it's not very scientifically rigorous
    The scientific method is how theories are proven/disproven. I'm not saying you're theory is wrong, as I don't have the evidence to disprove it. But your evidence is anecdotal at best.


  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by fateswarm View Post
    I noticed the highest drop rate mob in wowhead supports the hypothesis very strongly: http://www.wowhead.com/npc=69580#comments
    That's a mob that spawns during a quest chain, not one that can be farmed. As such, that mob may have a higher drop rate as a reward for those doing the quest chain.

    Then there's the Skumblade mobs on Isle of Thunder. They are intentionally packed in groups, sometimes up to 10. Which means pulling packs of them are almost guaranteed at times. Yet, they continue to have some the highest drop rates, which would seem to disprove your theory.
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  6. #6
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    Yeah, I don't think there's a point in discussing this until some empirical evidence is presented. It's not like this would be hard to test...
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by fateswarm View Post
    You mean analyse it with rigorous recording? Because I'm testing it every time I play.

    I know it's not very scientifically rigorous but I know it's too obvious, haven't you noticed how inexplicably low the drop rate is after pulling a humongous amount of mobs if you have already looted a few of them [plus it's extremely rare to see more than 1 or 2 motes in a huge pull]?

    edit: I do not mean once tested of course, but generally, most of my humongous pulls of mobs, very rarely net a good result if a single mob right before had a good result, and this violates the law of simple probability; probability does not decrease if you had a lucky streak and it does not increase if you had bad luck, the opposite is called the gambler's fallacy (look it up) and if it actually happens (as the gambler's fallacy predicts), it's rigged by coding.




    Update:

    I noticed the highest drop rate mob in wowhead supports the hypothesis very strongly: http://www.wowhead.com/npc=69580#comments

    It's a mob that basically drops a huge rate of motes, more than 73%, however, it doesn't always drop loot Don't you know what that means? When it eventually drops something, the game gives an increased probability for motes, because after all, if they were truly random they would drop at a similar rate with other mobs of a similar level, and I seriously doubt that particular mob is special in its rate of mobs specifically (it doesn't have any particular importance in the game whatsoever).
    This data does NOT support your hypothesis - all it proves is that different mobs have different mote drop rates. Your hypothesis suggests that looting these mobs in varying quantities will decrease the droprate, which cannot be determined by the wowhead data.

    I'd also like to point out, your theory seems to boil down to this: looting a mote from a mob will decrease the probability on subsequent mobs. There's no grand conspiracy here - that's basic probability. On the flip side are you suggesting that should you loot a large group of mobs without seeing a mote, that your next single loot has an increased chance of dropping a mote?
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  8. #8
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    I'm not interested in arguing with you, just sharing information. If you are not interested in adding more, I'd rather keep my information and thoughts for my own benefit to be honest, I won't profit by arguing.

    There is a lot of evidence. That quest mobs' drops on wowhead's data for example.

    Plus do you seriously discount countless of times you may see it yourself?

    Quote Originally Posted by Holyjoe View Post
    That's a mob that spawns during a quest chain, not one that can be farmed. As such, that mob may have a higher drop rate as a reward for those doing the quest chain.
    This is extremely unlikely. Do we seriously think that blizzard went out of their way and obscurely, completely obscurely since anything drops motes and there is no significance in that quest whatsoever that would imply it gets something special on motes, changed it just for that quest? Come on now, let's be serious, it's obviously not fixed just for that quest, it's the nature of the way the quests' mobs drop items, and the only obvious story is that they just don't drop loot so often so when they do drop it, motes drop more often, but since motes were supposed to be "low rate" it doesn't make sense they - when something drops eventually - they would have a higher chance, hence if and when something drops, then motes will drop more often if the system detects you didn't get your allotted motes yet.



    Quote Originally Posted by Holyjoe View Post
    Then there's the Skumblade mobs on Isle of Thunder. They are intentionally packed in groups, sometimes up to 10. Which means pulling packs of them are almost guaranteed at times. Yet, they continue to have some the highest drop rates, which would seem to disprove your theory.
    I don't see much significance in those mobs. They are similar to many in wowhead's data and most likely the pattern remains on them.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kathroman View Post
    I'd also like to point out, your theory seems to boil down to this: looting a mote from a mob will decrease the probability on subsequent mobs. There's no grand conspiracy here - that's basic probability.
    That's the gambler's fallacy (look it up). In no way or form it is basic probability. It is the exact opposite of basic probability.

    edit: As I said, if Blizzard has coded in stuff to satisfy the gabler's fallacy and make it work that way, it would be something that they could do, and I believe it is possible they might have done it on motes, since they have already done it as they have publicly admitted it on official interviews, though they had admitted it only for basic quest items of little significance at the time.
    Last edited by fateswarm; January 20th, 2014 at 03:07 PM.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by fateswarm View Post
    I'm not interested in arguing with you, just sharing information. If you are not interested in adding more, I'd rather keep my information and thoughts for my own benefit to be honest, I won't profit by arguing.
    If you're not interested in gathering REAL (scientific) evidence of this theory of yours, yet continue to assert it's correct, then this thread is a huge waste of time for everybody and my personal theory is that it should be closed.

    EDIT: Blizzard said they do it for quest items to improve people's game experiences. There's no evidence they would (or have do so in the past) rig the odds to make people play more. You're saying that since they have improved people's gaming experience, they would easily and intentionally degrade people's gaming experience, which again is backed by no scientific evidence that you've provided.
    Last edited by Sapu94; January 20th, 2014 at 03:12 PM.


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