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Enigma Seed expected value and songbell break even?

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  1. #1

    Enigma Seed expected value and songbell break even?

    So a dual gatherer can find out how to spend their SoH via TUJ.

    But what to plant on the farm?

    First, what do you use for the ev for ES?
    seems to say about 1/8 chance for Gl and 7/8 for an herb.

    So looking at
    the best use is 204g and GL is 110g per SoH.

    So a songbell should have an expected value of 20.4g and an Enigma Seed should be (7/8)*2 + (1/8)*55 or 8.6g

    if the price of GL > 11.66 times the average price of an herb, then Songbell is always better, even if there is nothing better than GL to spend SoH on.

    But that is pretty dependent on whether an ES grows into a Gl one out of 8 or 4 or ten times.

    How do you decide on ES vs SB for those characters who are selling them (e.g. are not BS or LW)

  2. #2
    seems to say about 1/8 chance for Gl and 7/8 for an herb.
    Since 5.1 I have an average 5/16 chance for GL. (Samplesize: 16 fields * 7 toons * 4 weeks (didn't track it before) = 3136 fields)

    So even if you would only use the GL, that would be 5 * 110g(/GL) = 550g. This would make 1 ES worth like 550g / 16 = 34,38g which beats the Songbells by far.

  3. #3
    Argalin's Avatar
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    I believe for a JC Songbells can potentially have a higher value due to Spirits now being a material to create . This is completely dependent on server economy, but if you are already shuffling and have excess uncommons then this is something to be mindful of on your JC toon/s.
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