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  1. #1

    When does it become profitable to use mysterious fortune cards

    The price of mysterious fortune cards is tanking on my realm and im wondering when it will actually be profitable to use the cards. Due to the giant influx of dirt cheap whiptail the cards are probably going to reach 4g each market price in a couple of weeks if this keeps up. Does anyone know how much gold you get on average from vendoring these?

  2. #2
    Valdron's Avatar
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    I don't think we'd be able to come up with a price for when flipping the cards to vendor them becomes profitable, since we don't have the rate on each card. Personally I don't think you would be able to make profit off of 4g cards, because mainly you get 10s and 50s cards, which is alot less.

  3. #3
    Someone tried 2402 cards and got a value of 2.56g per card (see http://wowfortunes.blogspot.com/)

  4. #4
    Thomus's Avatar
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    If you get the 1k or 5k card, you may be able to sell it at a premium (in trade chat NOT AH) for gold transfer individuals.

  5. #5
    Xsinthis's Avatar
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    Some at JMTC found a 1g41s average return: http://20kleveling.com/JMTCforum/vie...hp?f=27&t=9186

  6. #6
    Meyer's Avatar
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    I would say that it is very dangerous to conclude any Estimated Value (EV) based upon the samples you link to.

    With a very large deviation in the sample (the 5.000G card is very rare), you'll need a very very large sample size to conclude anything.

    Think of it:

    If the "true" value of the odds to get a 5.000G card is 1:5000 - and you have a sample size of 5000 containing 2 cards. The calculated EV is off by 1G per cards in average.

    If the calculated EV is 2,0 (containing a false EV on the 5000G card byt +1) the calculated EV is off by 100%.

    If you look at the "logic" I would expect the EV to be down in 1,5-2,5G area (looking at the average vendorvalue of a stack of herbs), but if its 1,5 or 2,5 I would need a sample size +100.000 (if not more) to conclude with a high confidence.

    So buy at 4G (or even 3) I would say: NO
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  7. #7
    Belzebutinov's Avatar
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    You can try something else, which has been decently profitable for me: . I've sold quite a bit, both on AH and barking, at a very stable 45g per cookie, simply by reminding people that a) you have a chance of getting that nice 5k card, and what's more, b) you have a 100% chance of getting the best food buff for you. They don't sell as fast, but I find them rather more stable.
    Don't forget to hand out reputation to people whose posts enlightened you!

  8. #8
    Namssob's Avatar
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    Here is your answer, or at least as close an accurate answer as I think we can come with actual testing:

    http://consortium.stormspire.net/sho...ing-to-be-Rich!
    How To: Create And Sell Profession Kits ---- MoP Shuffle Flowchart ---- Article: A Case For Dual Gathering
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  9. #9
    I agree with all these numbers being thrown out. I value a flipped (or for that fact unflipped) MFC at around 2.5g.

  10. #10
    Kathroman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wright View Post
    The price of mysterious fortune cards is tanking on my realm and im wondering when it will actually be profitable to use the cards.
    At the exact same moment when it becomes profitable to play the RL lottery, or buy scratch cards.

    Bottom line - I can almost guarantee that there is someone in the market on every serve that has at least half a brain to prevent the market from dropping to the point where you can actually make money from turning over the cards.

    Even if someone were to post 10,000 at 1G each, is anyone's herb market so far down the crapper that supply could keep up. That's essentially 50 pages of "free" herbs - if anyone has 50 pages of free herbs, please post your server as I will be transferring over to snatch them up.

    At any rate - there will be people that do stupid things with their pricing that can result in a market crash, but there is enough intelligence out there (albeit, spread across fewer people) to level them out.

    Don't use the cards - ever. I don't think it will ever be worth it.
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