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  1. #1
    Meyer's Avatar
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    Post your Elementium Ore Prospect results please

    Like with the In earlier posts, I would like to confirm the prospecting result from prospecting .

    Right now The Consortium Spreadsheet uses a 18,00% drop chance on uncommon gems, and a 4 or 5% on each of the Rare ones. (The Addon OreCrusher uses 18% and 4%).

    These dropchances must have come from a pretty limited number of prospects, and I’m pretty sure that the chance to get any of the Rares are even – and not 4 or 5%. Anyways – a lot of us prospect a ton of ore, and you have an addon like “Prospect Me” which gathers up the prospecting results I would be happy if you posted the results in this thread. (I only just installes it the other day, so I haven't got much own data)

    I have gathered a lot of data, but I need more results. Right now I only have:

    Uncommon:
    Red 613
    Blue 596
    Green 595
    Yellow 570
    Purple 609
    Orange 638
    Total 3.621

    Rare:
    Red 159
    Blue 133
    Green 145
    Yellow 145
    Purple 127
    Orange 152
    Total 861

    Number of prospects 3.319
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    Summer 2010: Average Poor Wow player ||| Winter 2010: Joined The Consortium ||| Summer 2011: Passed 2 mio. liquid gold ||| Currently (MOP) >4 mio. ||| You could do the same.!

  2. #2
    scu's Avatar
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    Not to be a downer or anything, but wowhead is going to be a much better place for this than a very small forum. Sure, those of us that go through the ore shuffle may process a decent chunk of ore, but the wowhead client has 1468088 prospects of elementium. I doubt this relatively small community is going to process 7.3M ore anytime soon.

  3. #3
    Meyer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scu View Post
    Not to be a downer or anything, but wowhead is going to be a much better place for this than a very small forum. Sure, those of us that go through the ore shuffle may process a decent chunk of ore, but the wowhead client has 1468088 prospects of elementium. I doubt this relatively small community is going to process 7.3M ore anytime soon.
    I understand your pov, but:

    I have looked in the numbers on Wowhead, and to be honest I don't trust them to be 100% correct.

    Earlier I gathered a sample of more then 10.000 prospect results from prospecting , and the result from this sample is different from the numbers on Wowhead.

    The test preformed here on Consortium ended up with a average drop rate of 24,97 % on uncommon gems - based on 10.000 prospects

    The number on WOW head say 23,57 % based 933.128 observations

    A 1,4%-point difference might not seam a lot when you look at it, but based on the sample sizes, and the fact that the outcome of a prospect is binary (=standarddiviation is very small) it’s a HUGE difference statistically, and I will to go as fare and say that the wowhead numbers are wrong.

    I haven’t looked in to how Wowhead datamine the observations, but I’m willing to bet, that there’s a lot of “missing” values in the 933.128 prospects.
    Last edited by Meyer; February 18th, 2011 at 07:14 AM.
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    Summer 2010: Average Poor Wow player ||| Winter 2010: Joined The Consortium ||| Summer 2011: Passed 2 mio. liquid gold ||| Currently (MOP) >4 mio. ||| You could do the same.!

  4. #4
    Sterling's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by scu View Post
    Not to be a downer or anything, but wowhead is going to be a much better place for this than a very small forum. Sure, those of us that go through the ore shuffle may process a decent chunk of ore, but the wowhead client has 1468088 prospects of elementium. I doubt this relatively small community is going to process 7.3M ore anytime soon.
    Like Meyer pointed out, WoWhead's data is wrong. It has been proven that their obsidium prospect rates are off, despite the insanely large sample size they're using. There is definitely something wrong with their data analysis.
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  5. #5
    IMHO the main point in this is that you should never, ever trust an outside source more than your own experimental data: the Obsidium breakdown by Meyer (excellent piece of work!) showed that nothing beats this kind of co-operation.

    Any data collected purely by an automated collection is prone to errors, wowhead's data being one of the latest to prove it. I'll see what I can do over the weekend, though I haven't been so far meddling with Elementium (though it's occasionally cheaper than Obsidium... stupid me!).

  6. #6
    I think another lesson is that devs are not whackos. They're not going to make common drop rates crazy numbers like 23.648752085. It's gonna be 1/4, and any deviation from pretty, rational numbers is likely just noise. 6 gems per prospect was called before wowhead had enough data to be trusted.
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  7. #7
    Xsinthis's Avatar
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    Also Wowhead rolls double drops into one collection, so it will say x% for 1-2 of a gem, not counting each gem separately. Plus i've heard problems about them keeping old data from previous patches or before hot fixes that changed rates

    P.S. That Prospect Me addon looks amazing, I can't believe i've never heard of this addon before O.o
    Last edited by Xsinthis; February 18th, 2011 at 01:28 PM.

  8. #8
    Xsinthis: cannot make that addon work, must be some other addon overriding is. Completely useless to me.

    Elementium prospecting

    Red 37
    Blue 26
    Green 37
    Yellow32
    Purple 41
    Orange30
    Total 203

    Rare:
    Red 8
    Blue 6
    Green 6
    Yellow14
    Purple14
    Orange7
    Total 55

    Number of prospects 46 stacks = 230 prospects

  9. #9
    Meyer's Avatar
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    Anyone knows where the addon Prospect Me saves the prospecting results?

    I would actually like to go through the result if possible, but I don’t know how and where the data are being stored (Have never looked beyond a peek in a lua).

    The result from +1200 prospects I have so fare looks reasonable valid, but unless really is a prospecting result from prospecting it not 100% flawless. (I have 1 observation saying that)

    @Copra: Your droprate on uncommes are very low compared to what i would expect. Your is (203/230)/6 = 14,7.

    Like someone said earlier it’s is properly unlikely that the exact formula is some random number, but something like ¼ = 25% for uncommon (= average of 6 uncommons per stack) and 1,25% for the rare = 0,075 Rare per stack which where the case with Obsidium.

    Right now my theory is that the number rares from elementium is 4,166% rare = 1 rare gem per 1 stack prospected in average. I still need a lot of data to make a conclusion – so please keep posting your results. (4,166666% x 6 gems x 4 prospects = 1,0000)

    Right now the numbers I have collected (and listed here – not including my own observations) points towards a 2/11 droprate = 18,18%, and I must admit, that I find it a little odd, that the number should be 2/11 (18,1818 % = 4,363636 gems per stack???) and not something like 2/10( 20% = 4,80 gems per stack or 2/12 (16,6666% = 4,00 gems per stack).

    The more data I get, the easier it will be to maybe rule any posted results as incorrect.
    Last edited by Meyer; February 23rd, 2011 at 08:43 AM.
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  10. #10
    Aeg's Avatar
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    My auctioneer should have all this data from a lot of prospects, does anyone know how to find it?
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