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  1. #1
    Altsoba's Avatar
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    Herb price - How will the market change?

    Hello,

    Currently, prices are going as follow in my server:

    Cinderbloom - 8/unit
    Stormvine - 10/unit
    Heartblossom - 10/unit
    Azshara's Veil - 12/unit
    Whiptail - 12-15/unit
    Twilight Jasmine - 14-17/unit

    I watched I rise in prices of around 20% in the last days and this is, I think, specially due to me that I'm absorbing several thousands of plants per day and therefore making them scarse at the AH.

    But... it can be any other thing, so I'd like to hear what are your thoughts about how specifically the herb prices will change:

    - we've been talking about Cata and inflation, read some places that it's smoothly stepping in, can it be?
    - I don't see less demand on the upcoming months at least so I cannot see why prices would go down...

    The question is to me quite critical as I'm trying and so far succedding to be the main dealer on DKM decks for this upcoming fair and I have to take a decision of whether continuing to strangle the herb market by buying out most of it, or not.

    I'm not buying just to make it scarse for others, I'm really milling it all, building cards/decks, selling some and getting a good stock for the fair period.

    Thank you for your insights on this subject,
    A good day to all,
    A.

  2. #2
    I've been contemplating using most of my liquid gold right now and buying up every herb i see for the next week and seeing what i can get Deck wise but i'm really hesitant on doing so. It seems prices on my server mostly match yours but i really haven't been watching the card market. I know Ember and Winds have been going for 3-4k each and decks around 25-30 but i don't know how well they are selling. I'm afraid of dumping 50k of my 75k into it and then not being able to sell the decks/cards within a few days/weeks. I'm not really partial to holding on to items, i'm more of a "wants results" now type honestly. The 2 bank tabs of saronite are killing me lol.

    On to your question, i see several options in herb prices and here's a few;
    -Possible reasons for prices dropping:
    1) with more people hitting 85 and being done with the level grind they will turn to farming. Yes they will be gearing/raiding but a lot of people mine/herb while they are in queue or before/after raiding.
    2) The initial rush of wanting/needing herbs to level professions is slowing down so people will be less likely to pay high prices for said herbs.
    3)For the majority of the WoW population, espcially those that aren't into this community, they get their gold from questing/dailies. With more and more people hitting 85 means their gold income has halted. Yes there are dailies but is doesn't match the 5-10k people made from doing the 80-85 grind.

    -Possible reasons for prices increasing:
    1) More people hitting 85 and wanting to stock up on flasks/elixirs
    2) Some players ignored professions to get to 85 as soon as possible so now they are attempting to power level them.
    3) Naturely before DMF hits more and more scribes attempt to stock up on cards/decks, which i beleive is the reason you've noticed an increase herb price. Personally i don't think it's an inflation and believe prices will drop again.

    I'm by no means an expert on economics and supply and demand and there's counters to every reason i've listed but ultimately it's up to you to make a decision =) It all comes back to the risk vs. reward factor. I don't feel comfortable risking 2/3 of my liquid gold right now into milling for decks since there's a risk that the cards won't sell and herb prices might drop thus making the decks drop. I'm on a small to medium population server in the first place so i just don't believe the demand is there yet.
    85 Paladin Enchanting/Jewelcrafting - 85 Hunter Herbalism/Mining - 83 Shaman Inscription/Alchemy - 75 Deathknight Tailoring/Jewelcrafting - 10/25 = 2k Gold, 1/23 = 100k Gold, 3/6 230k - Thank you Consortium forums!

  3. #3
    Praxel's Avatar
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    Herb prices are going to stay high for the immediate future, but it's hard to say what's going to happen over the next couple months. Cinderbloom, Azshara's Veil, Whiptail, and TJ are needed for flasks, which everyone is going to need all the time. So let's take a look at Darkmoon cards.

    There are currently four main ways to get 359 trinkets: Valor points, purchased at Tol Barad exalted, Darkmoon decks, and raid drops.

    Darkmoon: Hurricane looks like it might be BiS for Survival Hunters and Enhancement Shamans, because their mastery bonuses affect the trinket proc. There seems to be no internal cooldown on this trinket at the moment, which is part of what makes it so appealing. If Blizzard hotfixes, then this trinket may get bumped down.

    Darkmoon: Tsunami isn't BiS for healers, but it's pretty close. And the trinket that beats it is a rare Archaeology find, which not many people will spend the time and effort to unearth. This one seems solid.

    Darkmoon: Volcano is not being received well at the moment, because mastery is underpowered for many caster DPS classes. If Blizzard tweaks mastery upwards for these guys, this trinket might see a little more demand.

    Darkmoon: Earthquake is still being debated, and comments are all over the board. Seems excellent for Druid tanks, because they only care about dodge, hit points, and armor rating, and this trinket has two of the three. The downside is that there's no actual Stamina on the trinket, and the hp boost is an activated ability. It's going to be a little while before people figure out the right balance of avoidance and raw hit points.

    This is why I'm hesitant to make a call about herb prices... the power of the Darkmoon trinkets really depends on what Blizzard decides to do in the next couple months. If they buff mastery and leave Hurricane alone, cards will probably continue to be a good investment. If they nerf Hurricane and gimp mastery so casters look to other secondary stats, then the Cata cards will turn out the same way WotLK cards did... every time you make one, you'll be praying for Tsunami.

    However, I'm assuming that prices for all materials will deflate somewhat in the next two months, after everyone has finished leveling their professions to 525. I'm "short selling" my materials right now... that is, I'm selling everything I harvest, and planning to buy herbs if the price settles down a month or two from now.

  4. #4
    Kathroman's Avatar
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    Well, personally, I wouldn't risk 2/3 of my liquid gold on anything outside of vendor resale.

    Back on topic, I think that mat prices in general are likely to stay fairly consistent for a little while. As you mentioned, the majority of people's first priority wasn't to hit 525 with their professions. You suggested that this means that there will be more people looking to powerlevel them now, but I would also like to suggest that this could also mean that a number of people are waiting for mat prices to drop down to a "more appropriate" range. I think that there will be a big segment of the population looking to level their professions more casually until they feel that the market has stabilized. I think that these people will help to keep the market more or less where it is - think of it like "tentative" or "conditional" demand.

    Supply will undoubtedly increase as more and more players come back / upgrade over the next little while, but I think that there will be enough demand between them, people that have been reluctant to spend, and the alts from the initial wave to keep the market fairly stable for the next little while.

  5. #5
    Zenit's Avatar
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    @Alt...your herb prices are about the same on my server. My take on herb prices is that supply will always be fixed and demand will always be high.

    Supply - The 6 variety of herbs spread out uniquely in the 5 new zones; in Uldum, in Twilight Highlands etc. I am still surprised that & has a lower price since seahorsing in Vash is more PITA than flying in Hyjal, Deepholm, Uldum or Twilight Highlands. Yes & can be found in Hyjal but at a lesser occurance than in Vash. As such I would expect herbs gathered via flying to be in greater supply thus lower prices.

    Demand - The herbs seem to be on equal demand by alchemist. & are highly valued by inscriptionist for thus should logically be higher priced, which is the case here.

    Pricing
    The supply will be fixed and if your server has a larger population, the slice of the PIE will be smaller per person. This would lead to individuals putting a price on his/her gold/hour via farming.

    The inflation we had talked about is true to a certain degree. In the saronite shuffle, the vendor price set a floor on the AH price of saronite ore. Bigjimm's example of a cut common gem vendor at 9g set a floor on a stack of elementium ore. I would say that there is no correlation between vendor price to price inflation, just a unspoken common consensus of one's WoW gold/hour while out farming. The figure seems to be between 700-1500g/hour, time of day and server dependent. Using & as examples, there are much lesser and lets say one can pick 4-5 stacks in an hour (which put us at 1000g/hr) when compared to which one can pick 4-6 stacks in Twilight Highlands in the same time frame. I can also use elementium ore as a comparison for the ~1000g/hr rate as one, on average mid traffic period, can mine ~7 stacks and sell them for 8-10g each.

    Inflation or in simple words, the increase in price we are willing to pay sets to tone of AH prices. We could simply price a herb for 1g and keep trading at that thoughout Cataclysm. It only takes 1 greedy goblin to set a higher price until the scrouge stops paying.
    Last edited by Zenit; December 28th, 2010 at 05:11 PM.
    Suspended for now - Zenith's Round Table.)

 

 

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